This strange divergence could roil currency markets

There's a strange divergence in the market that according to founder Todd Gordon could rock global currency markets.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hit 3 percent on Tuesday, which it hasn't done since January 2014. According to the trader, this suggests a changing economic outlook that can be felt globally.

"Ten-year yields are pushing up above 3 percent, that's putting a bid into the U.S. dollar and out of the safe haven currency, which is the yen," he said Tuesday on CNBC's "Trading Nation."

But in the charts, Gordon points out that the Japanese yen and 20+ Year Bond ETF (TLT) have just broken out of a pattern that from a technical standpoint suggests the yen could see an even bigger fall. While the yen-tracking ETF (FXY) and the TLT traded together throughout 2016 and 2017, Gordon noted that they have recently begun to diverge and trade inversely to each other.

However, Gordon also believes the divergence is about to end. Gordon sees TLT eventually rising, implying that bond yields could fall further, which would essentially pull the yen down with it.

To determine how low FXY could go, Gordon looked at an uptrend line that has been in place for FXY for over a year. He sees FXY falling back to that support line at around the $85 to $86 level.

To profit from that potential move, Gordon wants to buy the June monthly 87-strike put and sell the June monthly 85-strike put for 45 cents, or $45 per options contract. Should FXY fall and close below $85 on June 15 expiration, Gordon could make up to $155 on the trade.

But should FXY close above $87, Gordon could lose the $45 premium he paid to make the trade.


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Trading Nation is a multimedia financial news program that shows investors and traders how to use the news of the day to their advantage. This is where experts from across the financial world – including macro strategists, technical analysts, stock-pickers, and traders who specialize in options, currencies, and fixed income – come together to find the best ways to capitalize on recent developments in the market. Trading Nation: Where headlines become opportunities.

Michael Santoli

Michael Santoli joined CNBC in October 2015 as a Senior Markets Commentator, based at the network's Global Headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J.  Santoli brings his extensive markets expertise to CNBC's Business Day programming, with a regular appearance on CNBC's Closing Bell (M-F, 3PM-5PM ET). In addition, he contributes to CNBC and CNBC PRO, writing regular articles and creating original digital videos.

Previously, Santoli was a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance, where he wrote analysis and commentary on the stock market, corporate news and the economy. He also appeared on Yahoo Finance video programs, where he offered insights on the most important business stories of the day, and was a regular contributor to CNBC and other networks.

Follow Michael Santoli on Twitter @michaelsantoli

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