Home Depot and two other Dow stocks look ripe for a buy, says technician

As the Dow comes under pressure again, one technician is taking the opportunity to break open the index for the names to buy on weakness.

Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, subscribes to one guiding philosophy to identify those picks.

"Our general rule to investing is only buy stocks above a rising 200-day moving average. That's indicative of a rising trend," Wald told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Monday.

Three Dow names that fit his bill: J.P. Morgan, Home Depot and Visa.

A pullback then a pop

The first, J.P. Morgan, is in the middle of a tactical pullback from which Wald expects it to recover.

"Shares have consolidated, they've been weak, but all this weakness is occurring again above that rising 200-day moving average. It's a function of the strong returns going into this weakness. The support is still intact. For J.P. Morgan that support is $105. It has to hold right there," said Wald.

J.P. Morgan shares have touched, but largely held above, a rising 200-day moving average for around two years. The last time they had an extended period below that trend line was in June 2016.

J.P. Morgan looks good from a fundamental perspective to Michael Bapis, managing director at the Bapis Group at HighTower Advisors.

"One theme that we see in J.P. Morgan is they're probably best positioned of any of the banks to take advantage of economic growth, of expansion in technology," Bapis said on Monday's "Trading Nation." "It's pulled back a little bit so we would buy that on the dip."

A building foundation

Home Depot looks like a "pre-breakout" stock, according to Wald.

"The stock is already starting to climb higher, it has broken some near-term resistance levels but the key level is the January peak around $207," he said. "Given the rising trend into that test of resistance we think the stock breaks higher, we want to own it."

Home Depot has come close to but not been able to break above its year-to-date high set on Jan. 29. That marked an intraday record for the home improvement retailer.

Charging higher

Visa has begun to break out as part of what Wald identifies as the beginning of a larger move.

"This stock really scores well across the board for us," said Wald. "There's top-down tail winds — strong sector, strong industry. We're bullish on mobile payments really across the board. It scores high in our momentum work, it's cleared resistance."

Visa shares have already risen a little more than 3 percent this month, putting them on track for their third straight month in the green.

Visa is up 18 percent in the year to date, Home Depot has added 5 percent and J.P. Morgan is roughly flat.

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Trading Nation is a multimedia financial news program that shows investors and traders how to use the news of the day to their advantage. This is where experts from across the financial world – including macro strategists, technical analysts, stock-pickers, and traders who specialize in options, currencies, and fixed income – come together to find the best ways to capitalize on recent developments in the market. Trading Nation: Where headlines become opportunities.

Michael Santoli

Michael Santoli joined CNBC in October 2015 as a Senior Markets Commentator, based at the network's Global Headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J.  Santoli brings his extensive markets expertise to CNBC's Business Day programming, with a regular appearance on CNBC's “Closing Bell (M-F, 3PM-5PM ET).   In addition, he contributes to CNBCand CNBC PRO, writing regular articles and creating original digital videos.

Previously, Santoli was a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance, where he wrote analysis and commentary on the stock market, corporate news and the economy. He also appeared on Yahoo Finance video programs, where he offered insights on the most important business stories of the day, and was a regular contributor to CNBC and other networks.

Follow Michael Santoli on Twitter @michaelsantoli

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