Gold is having an ugly year, but ‘this bloodbath is leading to a buying opportunity’

It's hard out there for a gold bug.

Gold is having a terrible year, losing nearly 8 percent in the last three months and 11 percent from its 2018 high as the U.S. dollar has gained ground against foreign currencies, weighing on the dollar-denominated asset.

But this bloodbath is leading to a buying opportunity. The biggest reason for that lies in "commitment of traders" data, which details open interest on futures and options on futures markets each week.

So bad, it's good

As expected, the herd has chased gold's move lower. Poor market sentiment right now leads me to wonder, if everyone has gotten out of gold, who's left to sell?

According to the CFTC's CoT data, managed money short positions have outweighed long positions for four weeks now, amounting to a near-record short position. Traditionally, it's the opposite; gold sits in a net long position, meaning managed money longs outnumber shorts. We've only seen this kind of pattern twice, and both times, gold has rallied.

The first time was in July 2015. Gold bottomed within two weeks, and rallied 11 percent. The second such time was in November 2015, and gold bottomed within three weeks before ultimately rallying 32 percent.

This signals that gold is creating a bottom near the psychological $1,200 mark. Gold was trading at $1,221.50 per ounce on Monday.

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Trading Nation is a multimedia financial news program that shows investors and traders how to use the news of the day to their advantage. This is where experts from across the financial world – including macro strategists, technical analysts, stock-pickers, and traders who specialize in options, currencies, and fixed income – come together to find the best ways to capitalize on recent developments in the market. Trading Nation: Where headlines become opportunities.

Sara Eisen

Sara Eisen joined CNBC in December 2013 as a correspondent, focusing on the global consumer. She is co-anchor of the 10AM ET hour of CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" (M-F, 9AM-11AM ET), broadcast from Post 9 at the New York Stock Exchange.

In March 2018, Eisen was named co-anchor of CNBC's "Power Lunch" (M-F, 1PM-3PM ET), which broadcasts from CNBC Global Headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J.

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