Opinion - Trading Nation

Gold is having an ugly year, but ‘this bloodbath is leading to a buying opportunity’

VIDEO1:2101:21
Gold is having an ugly year, but one trader sees a reversal coming

It's hard out there for a gold bug.

Gold is having a terrible year, losing nearly 8 percent in the last three months and 11 percent from its 2018 high as the U.S. dollar has gained ground against foreign currencies, weighing on the dollar-denominated asset.

But this bloodbath is leading to a buying opportunity. The biggest reason for that lies in "commitment of traders" data, which details open interest on futures and options on futures markets each week.

So bad, it's good

As expected, the herd has chased gold's move lower. Poor market sentiment right now leads me to wonder, if everyone has gotten out of gold, who's left to sell?

According to the CFTC's CoT data, managed money short positions have outweighed long positions for four weeks now, amounting to a near-record short position. Traditionally, it's the opposite; gold sits in a net long position, meaning managed money longs outnumber shorts. We've only seen this kind of pattern twice, and both times, gold has rallied.

The first time was in July 2015. Gold bottomed within two weeks, and rallied 11 percent. The second such time was in November 2015, and gold bottomed within three weeks before ultimately rallying 32 percent.

This signals that gold is creating a bottom near the psychological $1,200 mark. Gold was trading at $1,221.50 per ounce on Monday.