After a blockbuster start to the year, energy stocks have been range-bound. But one top technical analyst says a group within the sector is poised to charge higher.
Oil refinery stocks look particularly well-positioned, according to Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer. He gushed about one refiner within the group, Andeavor, in a recent note to clients, "What a Great Chart: Buy ANDV."
He explained on CNBC's "Trading Nation" why he's so bullish on refiners, and on Andeavor in particular. Here's what Wald said.
· The oil refinery group is well-positioned due to broad-based strength, as well as relative strength.
· Shares of oil refiner Andeavor have soared 32 percent this year, far outperforming the energy-tracking XLE ETF, which has risen 7 percent during the same period. Crude oil, meanwhile, is up 15 percent this year.
· While the rest of the energy sector is retracing losses dating to the sector's 2014 peak, Andeavor shares are breaking out to fresh all-time highs. This is a mark of leadership, and should continue.
· Ultimately, Andeavor is poised to rise to $170 per share, implying a 12 percent rally from current levels. That's determined by taking the height of the stock's prior trading range, between $70 and $120 per share, and projecting the upward move from the $120 breakout level.
Bottom line: Oil refinery stocks, and specifically shares of Andeavor, should see continued upside, according to Wald.