While investors have been focusing on Turkey as a source of contagion in emerging markets amid a plunging lira and political turmoil, we see the outlook for China as a much bigger problem.
China represents 25 percent of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, so what happens in China doesn't exactly stay in China. It has a more outsized impact than Turkey on investors; Turkey accounts for just 0.5 percent of the index.
With the trade war looming, China's outlook has been called into question. Concern of contagion is mounting as Chinese technology stocks are stumbling in the face of continued threats out of Washington and Tencent's big earnings miss.