Very little spare capacity in the market leaves $90 for a barrel of oil a very likely prospect by November, one industry expert told CNBC.
Middle East oil ministers told CNBC Monday that they didn't believe oil prices would rise above even $80 in the near term, particularly given Saudi Arabia and Russia's pledge to up production.
But, Amrita Sen, a chief oil analyst at Energy Aspect, disagrees. She said potential disruptions threatening certain oil exporters' production capabilities — namely, economic turmoil in Venezuela, social unrest in an oil-rich area of Iraq and U.S. sanctions on Iran — could lead to a sharp increase in prices.
"The critical thing is that Venezuela's (production) continues to drop, Iran is finally falling and we had that big timing mismatch — OPEC had increased production too soon, now Iran is falling so the market is really, really tightening up very quickly," Sen told CNBC's "Street Signs" Tuesday.
"Iraq, Libya, Nigeria … All three are very, very unstable and only one of these protests really needs to go bad and production will come off," Sen said, referring to protests in Iraq's oil-rich south and potential further oilfield shutdowns in Libya.
"This is the issue we have — OPEC has already increased production and near-term capacity is very limited, I would say about 300,000 barrels per day. Russia is already maxed out (in terms of output), Iraq is maxed out, so that means if you have any other outage … We just don't have any spare capacity to absorb it. Immediately, the market will feel the shortage."