Trading Nation

Snap just hit a record low, but one analyst says it could bounce 20%

As Snap spirals to an all-time low, some see more pain to come

Social stocks have been very unpopular this week.

The SOCL social media ETF tumbled Wednesday as Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg and Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey got a grilling from lawmakers in Congress.

Snap got caught in the crosshairs. Its shares spiraled more than 6 percent during the past two days, taking it down to its lowest levels since its public debut in March 2017.

The recent sell-offs in Snap have one analyst optimistic that the worst may soon be over.

"Over the next, say, three weeks, you're going to have a capitulation climax in this equity, and there's an extremely high probability of another 20 to 30 percent bounce and it could be like a three-, four-, five-month play," Bear Traps Report editor Larry McDonald said Wednesday on CNBC's "Trading Nation."

At least a 20 percent rally would take shares of Snapchat's parent company to around $12.22, their highest level since mid-August.

"We would start to buy the shares into the capitulation," said McDonald.

A 20 percent surge would not be enough to carry Snap out of a bear market. Its stock is 52 percent lower than its 52-week high set in February. Any drop of more than 20 percent marks bear market territory.

Others are less optimistic. A look at the charts does not paint a pretty picture for Snap, says one technician.

"Snap stands out for all the wrong reasons, unfortunately. It's especially glaring in a market that's been defined by new all-time highs recently," Instinet chief market technician Frank Cappelleri said on "Trading Nation."

Snap has walked a path to record lows as the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq reached new highs. Both indexes most recently hit records last week.

"If you look at 18 months of its trading history now, there's been five trading gaps (four to the downside and one upside)," said Cappelleri. "It makes for a very messy chart and, more importantly, it shows a big disconnect between investors and management."

Its most recent trading gap in August was also its largest decline on record. The stock tripped 22 percent on May 2 after revenue fell short of estimates.