A Federal Reserve turned hawkish and a Treasury Department keeping bond markets well supplied have carried yields to their highest levels in seven years.
And at least one veteran investor says an economy that's running very hot could lead benchmark interest rates much higher.
"I calculate fair value at around 4.5 percent in the 10-year," Jack Ablin, founding partner and CIO at Cresset Wealth Advisors, told CNBC's "Futures Now" on Thursday. "Historically the 10-year Treasury tended to track nominal GDP just as the overnight fed funds rate tends to track real GDP."
A run up in interest rates could derail growth, making it more expensive for consumers to borrow while raising debt costs for companies.
By Ablin's calculations, the real economic run rate at 2.5 percent and a 2 percent inflation rate brings nominal GDP to 4.5 percent. Ablin said the yield on the 10-year should be roughly level with that figure.
If that was to happen, the 10-year yield would soar to its highest level since October 2007.
Yields could spike to that level once global central banks move more aggressively to drain financial markets of excess cash. As it stands, the world's policymakers have slowly eased out of crisis-era monetary conditions, keeping bond prices high and yields low by curtailing their bond purchases.
"We still have this crisis level monetary policy in the system," said Ablin. "The European Central Bank is still putting money in buying bonds and the Bank of Japan is still putting money in buying bonds. In fact, there is still $6.5 trillion of bonds globally sporting yields below zero."