Surely there's only one way the British pound can trade in the coming months.
Currency experts are anxiously fixated on what the final details for Brexit will look like. But it seems simple to me: If it's good it's good, and if it's bad then the country will soon make it better.
What does this mean? Well, if we do get a deal from Prime Minister Theresa May and most U.K. lawmakers seem to like it, then Parliament approves it and it ends years of worry and uncertainty. Sterling rises.
If it's bad, or it looks like we'll crash out of the EU without a deal, then politics will once again move swiftly to balance the ship. Parliament won't vote for it, May could get thrown out, we get a new leader or we head to another general election. Sure, there might be a rocky period for the pound but all of this ultimately raises the chances of another Brexit referendum. This is again another sterling positive, according to many experts, especially if it reverses the 2016 vote.
Simon Derrick at BNY Mellon said in a research note last week that "positioning and pricing data suggest that while investors remain cautiously positioned towards GBP (the pound), quite a lot of the stresses that were apparent in the summer have dissipated."
Indeed, his analysis sorts through all the possible outcomes and gives a very low probability for a sudden change in sentiment. Instead, it seems as if those in the City of London are more worried about a situation that's only indirectly linked to the current Brexit impasse. Namely, the left-leaning Labour party gaining power in any snap vote.