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BTIG strategist sees 2 dangers for market: Fed hikes, worsening US-China relations

Key Points
  • "We think the Fed is on the cusp of making a policy mistake," says Julian Emanuel.
  • "You have to have some progress in China," Emanuel says. "If you don't have progress there, 2019 could be a challenge."
  • He says the positive forces in the market now are enough to bring the S&P 500 to 3,000 points.
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The man who called the big market rebound sees more gains ahead

If the Fed hikes rates in December and again in 2019 or if there is minimal progress in China-US relations, the market will go down, Julian Emanuel, BTIG's chief equity strategist, said on CNBC on Wednesday.

"We have to go back to the two 800-pound gorillas in the room that are going to be with us probably for months," Emanuel said on CNBC's "Fast Money. "

"No. 1: trade. You have to have some progress in China. If you don't have progress there, 2019 could be a challenge."

"The other thing is the Fed. ... We think the Fed is on the cusp of making a policy mistake. We'd like to see them at minimum if they're going to hike in December, think about signaling a dove-ish hike because [of] the risks of an escalating trade war."

He said the positive forces in the market now are enough to bring the S&P 500 to 3,000 points. On Wednesday, the S&P closed at 2,711.74 points, up slightly more than 1 percent.

Leadership is "going to have to come from the more value-oriented sectors and stocks," Emanuel said. "The industrials, the banks, energy, all of these things that ... have worked on the short side this year, are really where the profits of short-side traders lie."