Goldman expects commodities to rebound next year, says oil and gold prices are 'extremely attractive'

  • A dramatic sell-off in commodities comes at a time when traders are closely monitoring a flurry of market drivers.
  • So far this month, oil prices have collapsed on intensifying oversupply concerns, metals have fallen amid worries over slowing economic growth and investors continue to fret about the ongoing trade war between the world's two largest economies.
A worker on a an oil drill near New Town, North Dakota.
Daniel Acker | Bloomberg | Getty Images
A worker on a an oil drill near New Town, North Dakota.

Goldman Sachs said Monday commodities could surge around 17 percent over the coming months, with a fast-approaching G-20 meeting cited as a potential launchpad for raw materials.

A dramatic sell-off in commodities comes at a time when traders are closely monitoring a flurry of market drivers.

So far this month, oil prices have collapsed on intensifying oversupply concerns, metals have fallen amid worries over slowing economic growth and investors continue to fret about the ongoing trade war between the world's two largest economies.

"Given the size of dislocations in commodity pricing relative to fundamentals with oil now having joined metals in pricing below cost support, we believe commodities offer an extremely attractive entry point for longs in oil, gold and base," Analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a research report published Monday.

'Greater clarity on a potential OPEC cut'

At the end of the week, President Donald Trump and Chinese premier Xi Jinping are expected to meet on the side-lines of a G-20 summit in Argentina.

The meeting offers a chance for the two global leaders to address their trade dispute, while Russia's Vladimir Putin will have an opportunity to discuss crude policy with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

"Many of the political uncertainties weighing on commodity markets have a significant chance of being addressed in Buenos Aires," Analysts, including Jeffrey Currie, said in the report.

"This includes some improvement on the China-U.S. relationship and like in the 2016 G-20 meetings, some greater clarity on a potential OPEC cut," they added.

In listing its top ten trade ideas for 2019, Goldman said it anticipated a rebound for Brent crude as OPEC implements production cuts.

Oil prices rose on Monday, paring some of the dramatic losses sustained in the previous session, but lingering concerns about an increase in global supply and a slowdown in economic growth limited gains.

International benchmark Brent crude was trading at $60.24 a barrel Monday lunchtime, up around 2.5 percent, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $51.24, more than 1.6 percent higher.

On Friday, crude futures tumbled almost 7 percent, falling to their lowest levels in more than a year. The declines have ramped up the pressure on OPEC ahead of a much-anticipated meeting between the influential oil cartel and its allies in Vienna on Dec.6.

The Middle East-dominated group is expected to announce that output will be curtailed, though the prospect of a fresh round of supply cuts has done little to prop up prices in recent weeks.

Both Brent and U.S. WTI are down more than 20 percent this month. And, unless they recover further throughout the trading week, the monthly losses would mark their biggest fall in more than 10 years.

Gold

Meanwhile, gold prices rose slightly on Monday, as the U.S. dollar weakened and the future course for Britain's departure from the European Union provided support for the yellow metal.

"If U.S. growth slows down next year, as expected, gold would benefit from higher demand for defensive assets," Goldman said in the note.

The U.S. bank said market participants had already priced in 10 out of the 12 interest rate hikes it expects from the Federal Reserve, adding there may well be additional support in the form of central bank buying.

Spot gold was up around 0.3 percent to $1,225.89 per ounce at around 1 p.m. London time. Spot gold is down nearly 6 percent year-to-date.

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