— This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on December 19, 2018, Wednesday.
International oil prices come into a downswing period and experienced the drop for the 3rd consecutive trading days overnight. WTI jumped 7.3%, BRENT downed 5.6%, that means these 2 readings for international oil prices hit a new one-year low because the markets is running out its patience to OPEC and worry the supply from U.S. and Russia.
OPEC and Russia-leading non-OPEC oil producers reached a general consensus about cuts deal in next year not long ago. Russia, however, is not in that willingness to cut, so the market is in doubts. QATAR withdrew from the OPEC, also causing the worries over OPEC's "voice" and "influence" ramp up. At the same time, U.S. crude oil outputs are still increasing: total U.S. shale oil production for December is expected to rise by 123,000 barrels a day, and is expected to rise by 134,000 barrels a day to 8.166,000 barrels a day in mid-January, reaching a near-record high, data from EIA shows.
On inventory front, an important indicator shows: Cushing, where is the delivery point for U.S. crude oil futures, its inventory climbed over 1million barrels on last week, which is from 11 to 14 this month. And this signal fuels the worries sentiment as that means a growing supply and a falling demand, in other words, oversupply. As for Russia, reached a cuts deal with OPEC though, it's said that Russia outputs recorded high recently.
REUTERS cited information shows that in the 1st 2 weeks of Dec, Russia crude outputs rose to 11.42 million barrels per day, if this figure is correct, Russia will notch a peak in Dec outputs history. This kind of source throws the market in doubt that if Russia really wants to cooperate with OPEC to cut?
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If continues on this bears sentiment run to practice getting into those, might maybe up thirty , the reason for the significant change and the reasonably is the last set of data raise we have been watching for production.
The outputs in U.S. and Russia cast shadow on oil market and offset all positive expectation brought by OPEC's cuts, weighting the oil price down in technical bear market. Additionally, you may also notice another trend recently, which is the big drop volatility of 7% or 8% around. Some analysis thinks in commodity trading, computers and algorithm trading are more frequently used, exaggerating the soaring or diving as the fundamental information analysis is covered by the programmed market trend. "Price movements over the past week are now reflected in one day" as an oil trader concluded. And this saying also means the big volatility for oil prices may become a new normal in this period. We will keep an eye on this issue.