The trade war may be hurting China more than the U.S., but by spring, China could be looking up as the U.S. slows, particularly if the friction continues, economists said.
According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists, the China slowdown could start to reverse in the next couple of months, due to large amounts of domestic stimulus. For the U.S., economists have been forecasting a slower second half of the year, with growth under 2 percent in some forecasts, as stimulus from tax cuts and spending wears off.
Trade negotiators are meeting in Beijing this week, and positive comments around those talks have been helping steady markets.
"So far the trade war has had a much bigger impact on Chinese growth than US growth. However, that could change by next spring," the BofAML economists said in a note. "... the US has tried to minimize the blowback from its tariffs by avoiding consumer products and either avoiding or giving exemptions for products without easy substitutes. Looking ahead, the next moves would be much more painful."