One stock, up 7,500% since financial crisis lows, has more room to run, technician says

Consider it an Ulta-mate rally.

Shares of Ulta Beauty have roared around 7,500 percent higher in the past 10 years, far better than the 315 percent increase for the S&P 500 off its March 2009 intraday low.

Bill Baruch, president of Blue Line Futures, says the cosmetics retailer has more room to run.

"The chart has been extremely constructive," Baruch said on CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Wednesday. "You've got a trend line going back to 2014. It has tested it four times and it has held."

The next major test for the stock is whether it can break above years-long resistance, says Baruch.

"We're right back up to these highs from 2017 and 2018, so it's not all perfect. There is a ceiling of resistance there," added Baruch. "However, it has developed an ascending triangle, which is a bullish pattern. Look for a close, a clear close, out above $325 for a breakout and you could see another 15 to 30 percent upside."

An ascending triangle pattern typically suggests bullish momentum building toward a breakout. Ulta needs to rally 4 percent to reach $325 in what would mark a new record. Another 30 percent rally would take Ulta up to $422.50.

Its next big swing could come when the company reports earnings next week, according to Stacey Gilbert, head of derivates strategy at Susquehanna.

"This presents an opportunity for investors as we head into earnings who want to protect a position, who want to protect this recent rally," Gilbert said on "Trading Nation" on Wednesday. "The market is implying around a 7 percent move for the upcoming earnings."

A 7 percent swing in either direction puts Ulta's potential range at roughly $290 to $334 from the current $312 a share.

"Three of the last four earnings reports have seen at least a 6 percent move with last quarter seeing a 13 percent move, so I do think there's an opportunity here for investors who are concerned heading into earnings that there could be a pullback, that the risk reward for those puts is attractive," Gilbert said.

Ulta is scheduled to report earnings after the bell on March 14. Analysts anticipate 4 percent earnings growth and 9 percent sales growth over its holiday quarter, according to FactSet estimates.

Disclosure: Susquehanna is a market maker in the securities of ULTA.


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Trading Nation is a multimedia financial news program that shows investors and traders how to use the news of the day to their advantage. This is where experts from across the financial world – including macro strategists, technical analysts, stock-pickers, and traders who specialize in options, currencies, and fixed income – come together to find the best ways to capitalize on recent developments in the market. Trading Nation: Where headlines become opportunities.

Michael Santoli

Michael Santoli joined CNBC in October 2015 as a Senior Markets Commentator, based at the network's Global Headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J.  Santoli brings his extensive markets expertise to CNBC's Business Day programming, with a regular appearance on CNBC's Closing Bell (M-F, 3PM-5PM ET). In addition, he contributes to CNBC and CNBC PRO, writing regular articles and creating original digital videos.

Previously, Santoli was a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance, where he wrote analysis and commentary on the stock market, corporate news and the economy. He also appeared on Yahoo Finance video programs, where he offered insights on the most important business stories of the day, and was a regular contributor to CNBC and other networks.

Follow Michael Santoli on Twitter @michaelsantoli

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