History suggests Lyft's first earnings report as a public company won't exactly be a smooth ride.
The options market is implying a 10% move in either direction for the ride-hailing company's stock after its Tuesday evening earnings report, a meaningful swing that could take the $60 stock down to $54 or up as high as $66 a share.
But if you look at how the first public earnings reports from other highly anticipated tech companies such as Facebook went, they suggest Lyft's next move will likely be a leg down, RiskReversal.com's Dan Nathan said Monday on CNBC's "Options Action."
"I just want to go and look back at some other high-profile companies' IPOs," said Nathan, who also appears as a trader on CNBC's "Fast Money." "Twitter was down 24% after theirs; Snapchat [parent Snap] was down 21% after theirs; Facebook was down 11%, and Spotify, last year, was down about 6%. "
That means Lyft's first pass at impressing Wall Street may not go too well, despite the fact that most analysts have rated the stock positively, with 15 "buy," eight "hold" and only two "sell" ratings.
"This is a big opportunity for these companies, right out of the gate, soon after they just did their IPO roadshow, to tell investors how they're doing as publicly traded companies," Nathan said. "With 44% short interest, I suspect good news in this name could cause a little bit of a short squeeze. But [it's a] really tough name to play with options directionally, with implied volatility [and] the price of options as high as it is right now."
And, if you ask Seymour Asset Management founder and Chief Investment Officer Tim Seymour, an upside surprise isn't a long shot for Lyft.
"This [stock] is down 20% into those numbers, so it's a case of where you actually think there may be even a chance for these guys to give you a little bit of an upside surprise," he said on "Options Action." "But the bottom line is: Expecting companies who are fresh out of the gates to be flawless on their earnings call is, I think, a tall order, even though I think there's a lot of bad news in this stock."
Private Advisor Group's Guy Adami also tentatively put himself in the "bull camp," noting that while Facebook's first earnings report hurt its stock, things "worked out pretty well" for the social media giant over the long term.
But others, such as BKCM founder and CEO Brian Kelly, were less intrigued.
"I was wrong on this," he said. "I thought there'd be a window where you could buy Lyft before Uber['s] roadshow went, before the earnings. Now, I think you need to stay away. I don't think you have to buy Lyft at these levels or before the earnings. You can wait and see. I just think there's too much risk. There's too much risk that money comes from Uber, there's too much risk that they make a mistake on the call. So I stay away."