Amazon shares will rally to $3,000 in about two years, making them worth nearly $1.5 trillion, without the company doing much differently than it is doing today, Piper Jaffray told clients on Friday.
"We believe AMZN shares will reach $3,000 by sometime between mid-'21 and mid-'22 or within 24-36 months," analyst Michael Olson said in a note. "We have a high degree of confidence that AMZN shares can reach this level with no major acquisitions or other significant changes to the business."
Olson also noted that even though he is assuming decelerating growth in all major Amazon business lines and is applying conservative multiples, he still comes to this eye-popping conclusion. Using a sum-of-the-parts analysis, he finds the retail side of Amazon's business is cheap.
"Adjusting for the value of the AWS segment and Advertising (within "Other"), the company's core retail segment is trading at a level that implies that business is valued below a traditional brick & mortar multiple of sales," the note said.
Piper's official 12-month price target is $2,225 and it rates the stock overweight. A rally to $3,000 would mean a gain of 65%.
Amazon shares are up 20% this year and 86% the last two years. The stock, however, is off 11% from its all-time high which put its worth at more than $1 trillion.