Expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve have revived the 10-year yield this week.
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury traded at 2.12% on Wednesday, holding its rebound from a day earlier. Bond yields came back on Tuesday after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell struck a dovish note on monetary policy, with the 10-year bouncing from a 20-month low reached earlier in the week.
Chad Morganlander, portfolio manager at Washington Crossing Advisors, said the bounce in yields could be short-lived.
"In the short range, you could see a 10 to 15 basis point gap higher, but … inflation expectations we believe will be marked down and also global growth or aggregate demand we think will soften over the course of 2019 into 2020," Morganlander said on CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Tuesday. "So we would continue to be long this trade if you start to see rates go higher."
Morganlander said the yield on the 10-year could move up to 2.25% to 2.3% in the near term. Beyond that, it could fall back down to 2% and even to 1.75% in the next six to nine months, he predicts. Bond yields, which move inversely to bond prices, generally fall when Treasurys experience increased demand.
Matt Maley, equity strategist at Miller Tabak, also sees yields headed higher in the near term.
"In today's mechanized markets where they're all so highly leveraged, we seemed to overshoot in both directions. We certainly overshot in the bond market, and it became extremely overbought in price and extremely oversold in yield," Maley said during the same segment. "If you look at the 10-year yield, you look at the RSI chart, it's the most oversold it was going all the way back to 2001, so that was extremely oversold."
The RSI, or relative strength index, of the U.S. 10-year Treasury note fell to 19 on Monday. Any reading below 30 typically signifies oversold conditions.
"On the flip side, you look at the TLT [20+-year Treasury Bond ETF], which measures price, and it was much more overbought than it was back in December and really any time in the last few years. And on top of all that, you had the sentiment, you had 93% bullishness among futures traders, so everybody was on one side of the boat," Maley said.
"This is the kind of technical setup that usually lasts for a while, so I think the pop in rates is going to last for several weeks rather than just a few days," Maley said.
The TLT has risen 9% in the past three months. Its RSI spiked above 80 earlier this week, past the 70 threshold that points to overbought conditions.