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Apple could lose nearly a third of its value if China makes this trade war move

Technical levels in Apple investors need to watch

Apple shares are getting a lift this week after CEO Tim Cook said the company would escape from any escalation in the U.S.-China trade war.

Strategic Wealth Partners president Mark Tepper says investors should still keep the trade threat top of mind, especially if the worst-case scenario plays out.

"The main issue right now is this China threat is real," Tepper said on CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Wednesday. "They're making some power moves right now and the ultimate power move would be to ban iPhones. Now if that happens, this thing goes down to $130."

A move down to $130 represents 29% downside, or a loss of roughly one-third of its value. Apple has not traded at that level since February 2017.

"However, I think that's a low probability because we'd basically be at war at that point, and China would be putting their own citizens out of work, so it's concerning but unlikely," said Tepper.

While trade tensions could keep Apple on edge in the short term, Tepper remains long the stock.

"Long-term we still like it. They're doing well transitioning over to more of the service-based model, and the deal with Qualcomm ensures that they're going to have that 5G phone next year. So I think once we see some progress with China, the stock is going to rip," said Tepper.

Apple shares have recouped a fraction of the losses seen in May. The stock stumbled 13% last month, though has surged 4% in the early start to June.

JC O'Hara, chief market technician at MKM Partners, says the stock isn't out of hot water yet.

"Longer term, I think it's still in a very difficult situation and this situation really reminds me of where it was at the end of November last year. Remember we had a 20% pullback, we undercut the 200-day moving average. We had a little bit of an oversold bounce, but that bounce faded and we made new lows," O'Hara said during the same segment.

Whether this is just an oversold bounce depends on two key technical levels, says O'Hara.

"The first is the 200-day moving average," he said. "If we get above that, I will turn incrementally more bullish and positive on the technical set up. Conversely if we back and fill and undercut the June 3 lows at $170, I think we need to get out of this position and exit Apple. So pay attention to those two levels."

Apple needs to rally another 4% to get back above the 200-day moving average at around $189. A move back to the June lows at $170 represents 7% downside.

Disclosure: Strategic Wealth Partners has a position in Apple.