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One of Wall Street's most optimistic Tesla analysts is sticking with his call for the stock to double over the next 12 months, telling clients that recent negative sentiment is "decoupled from reality."
The market fails to understand Tesla's "technological and cost advantage" and remains on track for solid cash flow in the second quarter, analyst Alexander Haissl of Berenberg wrote. His price target of $500 implies more than 100% upside in the next year.
"We maintain our bullish view on Tesla and see no reason to walk away from our price target of $500," Haissl wrote in a note sent to clients Thursday. "Demand worries are overblown, as the Q1 volume weakness was largely self-inflicted by logistic problems, uncertainty about store closures and changing pricing structure, and not indicative of the underlying demand situation."
New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu is the only analyst on Wall Street more bullish than Haissl, according to FactSet data. Indeed, Haissl's target is 110% higher the the median analyst forecast of $238, just above Thursday's closing price of $213.91.
Tesla's stock has slid in recent months as the company embarked on a cost-cutting spree, analysts questioned demand for its vehicles and investors wondered about its future in China. Tesla shares have fallen more than 26% over the last three months, but have bounced 15% in June as more optimistic traders snap up the stock at the lower price.
Haissl added that the recent downswing did not derail his positive line of thinking.
"Q1 weakness does not change our positive fundamental view, as it is not indicative of the underlying strength of the business," he wrote. "The demand debate is likely to remain an 'on paper' battlefield between bulls/bears and will only be resolved once hard facts are reported, as management is given little credibility for any reassuring commentary."