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As interest rates fall, one technical analyst sees an unexpected Dow winner

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One Dow stock on path to new highs, technician says

Rates are on watch ahead of the Federal Reserve announcement on monetary policy Wednesday afternoon.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note ticked higher Wednesday morning after hitting a 20-month low a day earlier.

A dovish Fed, and falling interest rates, should kick off a rally in one Dow stock, says Todd Gordon, founder of TradingAnalysis.com.

"We're looking at Home Depot here," Gordon said on CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Tuesday. "We're trying to break out of about a $210 resistance level that's been in place since early 2018. We're trying four times here and it looks like with this particular market … we might finally be able to get this breakout."

Home Depot touched $210 before falling back to below $208. It briefly traded above that level in September.

The rally in bond prices, which move inversely to yields, should provide a tailwind to the stock, adds Gordon.

"The TLT U.S. Treasury bonds [ETF], this is the 20+ U.S. Treasury, so this is basically the 20+-year maturity bonds. Obviously bonds moving up, you'll remember interest rates moving down is helping the housing sector and obviously Home Depot would be a beneficiary of that," Gordon said.

However, Home Depot has yet to catch up to the surge in the price of long-term bonds.

"There's actually a little bit of intermarket divergence here. So TLT has broken … those 2018 highs which clearly you can see Home Depot has not yet, so perhaps bonds are acting as a leading indicator here," said Gordon.

To take advantage of an expected move higher, Gordon is buying the 210 call and selling the 230 call. This bullish options bet projects a move as high as $230 before Sept. 19 expiration. A move to $230 implies 11% upside and would mark a record high.