logo

This could be 'the next shoe to drop' with stocks at all-time highs

VIDEO4:1704:17
This could be 'the next shoe to drop' with stocks at all-time highs

Markets are making major moves.

The closed at a fresh all-time high on Thursday after the Federal Reserve appeared to leave the door open for future rate cuts. The dovish comments sent stocks soaring, putting the Dow Jones Industrial Average on track for its best monthly performance since October 2015.

But Wall Street isn't in the clear just yet, says Mark Tepper, president and CEO of Strategic Wealth Partners.

"Valuations look pretty rich, so I think the market trades sideways and range-bound for the rest of the year or until we get a trade deal done. I think that's the next catalyst to move us higher," he said Thursday on CNBC's "Trading Nation."

"Beyond that, the main issue I see is second half 2019 earnings estimates," Tepper said. "They're still way too high, and they're going to have to start coming down. As that happens, that could exert even more downward pressure on stocks. I think that could be the next shoe to drop."

Even so, Tepper sees pockets of opportunity in areas like health care, which has underperformed the S&P by about 10% year to date.

"It's got the best revenue and earnings growth potential of all the sectors that are out there," he said. "Within that sector, we like Abbott Labs and Intuitive Surgical. "

Tepper favors Abbott Laboratories, a medical device company, for its record sales growth for its diabetes products, which include an industry-leading glucose monitor and, later this year, a heart valve product.

As for Intuitive Surgical, a firm creating robots that assist in complex surgeries, Tepper was bullish on its upgrade prospects as Intuitive's customers pay up for newer systems, and for its now largely recurring-revenue model.

"So, the strategy here is to be selective as far as we can see until there's a trade deal," he said.

But Todd Gordon, founder of TradingAnalysis.com, was a bit less picky.

"I'm actually bullish," he said in the same "Trading Nation" interview. "I'm in the least amount of cash I've ever been in my portfolio. I think it's time to go. I think the S&P will finally get 3,000."

Gordon based his thesis on several charts of the S&P, the first of which compared the S&P's put-to-call ratio with the index itself.

Gordon said that the chart showed that the put-to-call ratio had to reach the 0.5 or 0.6 level for the S&P to see a sustained drop, and that right now, the ratio is far from those levels.

Moreover, he added, the chart of the S&P itself has formed "a kind of inverse head-and-shoulders" pattern, typically a bullish sign for technical analysts.

As for the rally, "we're starting to get confirmation from emerging markets with the weak dollar," he said. "Markets are starting to price in a trade deal."

"Overseas I don't think is going to act as a drag, and I think that is the all-clear for us to go up and test [3,200 or] 3,300 in the S&P in the next one to two years," Gordon said.

Disclosure: Strategic Wealth Partners owns shares of Abbott Labs and Intuitive Surgical.

Disclaimer