Facebook Vice President David Marcus is the face of the company's Libra digital currency, but the original driving force was a 26-year-old female corporate-development...Technologyread more
Amazon's new policy for account suspensions doesn't go far enough to protect sellers from potentially unfair and wrongful suspensions, merchants say.Technologyread more
There is no end in sight to the Boeing 737 Max grounding after two fatal crashes, prompting airlines to rethink their growth plans.Airlinesread more
After a year of flooding, Midwest farmers face a stifling heat wave that's spreading across the U.S.Agricultureread more
A quarter of the S&P 500 companies report earnings next week, and that could buffet the market as investors await the July Fed meeting.Market Insiderread more
Moving lots of data to a public cloud over the internet can take months or years. CNBC got an inside look at how AWS transfers data to the cloud for its clients.Technologyread more
Iran's Revolutionary Guard claims a British tanker it still holds, Stena Impero, failed to follow international maritime rules.World Newsread more
"It troubles me that the most important political office in the world is becoming the face of racism and exclusion," Kaeser said in a Twitter post.Politicsread more
CoinShares Chief Strategy Officer Meltem Demirors discusses Facebook's Libra project and its impact on the cryptocurrency market after testifying to the House Financial...Fast Moneyread more
Some 40% of Americans would struggle to come up with even $400 to pay for an emergency expense. Just how are so many Americans so short on cash? Blame debt.Personal Financeread more
Amazon hires Trump-allied lobbyist Jeff Miller as battle for Pentagon contract heats up.Politicsread more
One Wall Street brokerage told clients Monday that the globe is "one step away" from recession as the world's two largest economies head to the G-20 summit meeting in Japan this week to try to hash out key issues and end a monthslong trade war.
While escalation isn't what UBS expects, a failed meeting between President Donald Trump and China's Xi Jinping that results in a new wave of tariffs would mean "major" changes to global GDP and market forecasts, global head of economic research Arend Kapteyn wrote in a note.
If the trade war escalates, "we estimate global growth would be 75bp lower over the subsequent six quarters and that the contours would resemble a mild 'global recession' —similar in magnitude to the Eurozone crisis, the oil collapse in the mid-1980s and the 'Tequila' crisis of the 1990s," he wrote.
The impact of a scuttled trade deal at the U.S.-China meeting in Osaka and agitated relations wouldn't be felt immediately, however, but grow in severity over several quarters as higher prices stifle demand and growth, the UBS researcher wrote. In the United States, the cumulative reduction in GDP would be about 1% over six quarters, 1.2% in China and 0.74% in Europe, Kapteyn wrote.
U.S. and Chinese negotiators are expected to begin discussions in Osaka this week before Trump and Xi meet, hoping to quell inflamed relations between Washington and Beijing, which have crumbled since late April. In a surprise move, Trump tweeted on May 5 that tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods would increase to 25% and that another 25% tariff would "shortly" be imposed on an additional $325 billion of imported goods from China.
Traders blamed the worsened trade outlook for an equity pullback in May, with the S&P 500 down 6.5% last month.
But further aggravation of the trade conflict could push global equities down 20%, Kapteyn said, with the prior U.S. outperformance relative to Europe eroding and emerging markets taking a heavy hit.
"In global sectors, Materials stands out as most vulnerable, but some defensive and crowded segments are also at risk amidst weaker growth," he added. "For a bottom up perspective, we lean on our prior work to highlight trade and crowded growth exposed stocks."
Source: U.N. Comtrade database, U.S. Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
The economist added that all major central banks would be forced to ease monetary policy, with the U.S. Federal Reserve compelled to cut interest rates by 100 basis points on top of an expected 50-basis-point cut in July. Such a push would pressure the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note below its record low of 1.3%, the UBS economist predicted.
In China, the government would add another 150 basis points of total social financing growth, with GDP falling under 6%. China's total social financing is a catchall term for lending by banks and other institutions.
"Once policy makers have delivered the limited stimulus, investors will likely worry about them running out of options," the UBS team wrote. "In the trade escalation case, we expect US 10y yields to fall through all-time lows."