US Markets

Navarro: Dow would hit 30,000 if Fed cuts rates and Congress passes new Mexico-Canada trade deal

Key Points
  • Both of these moves together would be "very bullish for the markets," says the White House trade advisor.
  • Navarro affirms his rosy outlook, saying U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods are not hurting economic growth.
  • "Hopefully the Fed will do the right thing here and lower the interest rate and get us back on track," says Navarro.
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Peter Navarro on new trade talks between the U.S. and China

The Dow Jones Industrial Average could rise above 30,000 if the Federal Reserve were to cut interest rates and the new trilateral trade deal with Mexico and Canada were to pass Congress, White House trade advisor Peter Navarro told CNBC on Tuesday.

Both of these moves together would be "very bullish for the markets," said Navarro, echoing calls from President Donald Trump and others in the administration for lower borrowing costs and passage of the U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement. The trade deal, also known as USMCA, would replace NAFTA, the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement.

The Dow — which closed Monday at 26,717 and about 1% away from its October all-time high — was little changed in midday trading Tuesday.

Throughout Tuesday's interview on "Squawk on the Street," Navarro repeatedly affirmed his bullish market outlook, saying that U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods were not hurting economic growth.

Last month, top Trump economic advisor Larry Kudlow told CNBC that getting the USMCA in place is "more important" for the economy than reaching a deal to end the U.S.-China trade war.

On the Fed, Navarro on Tuesday slammed central bankers for increasing rates four times last year, with the last move coming back in December when financial markets were melting down.

"What we're feeling now is that residual mistake," said Navarro. "Hopefully the Fed will do the right thing here and lower the interest rate and get us back on track."

The markets are putting 76.5% odds on a 0.25% Fed rate cut next month and 23.5% odds on a more aggressive 0.5% reduction. The target range for the fed funds overnight lending rate is 2.25% to 2.5%.

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Key Points
  • U.S.-China trade talks may have restarted, but a potential deal is still a ways off, White House trade advisor Peter Navarro tells CNBC.
  • "We had a deal that was over 150 pages long with seven different chapters" at the time the negotiations flamed out, Navarro says on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street," which is "the basis now for moving further forward."
  • Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had said last week that the U.S. had been "90% of the way" on China. But Navarro cautions that "this will take time, and we want to get it right."