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TABLE-Bank of England growth and inflation forecasts in August 2019 Inflation Report

Report@

LONDON, Aug 1 (Reuters) - The Bank of England has published a new set of stylised economic forecasts for different 'smooth Brexit' scenarios, designed to take into account the likelihood that the pound, share prices and government bond yields would all rise. The BoE said its central forecasts were distorted by the fact that although it continues to assume a smooth Brexit, the financial market prices that underpin its calculations increasingly reflect the risk of a no-deal Brexit. The new stylised forecasts are intended to resolve this tension. Annual GDP growth, %

Q3 2020 Q3 2021 Q3 2022Central forecast 1.4 2.4 2.5Scenario 1 1.1 2.3 2.5Scenario 2 0.9 2.1 2.5

CPI, %

Q3 2020 Q3 2021 Q3 2022Central forecast 1.9 2.2 2.4Scenario 1 1.5 1.9 2.1Scenario 2 1.1 1.5 1.8

Excess demand, % of GDP Q3 2022

Central forecast +1.75Scenario 1 +1.25Scenario 2 +1.00

Scenario 1: market path for Bank Rate 25 basis points higher by Q3 2022, 5% higher trade-weighted sterling, 20 bps higher 10-year gilt yield, lower credit spreads and higher equity prices. Scenario 2: Market path for Bank Rate 50 bps higher by Q3 2022, 10% higher trade-weighted sterling, 40 bps higher 10-year gilt yield, lower credit spreads and higher equity prices. (Reporting by Andy Bruce, editing by David Milliken)