The company's S-1 lays the groundwork for what is widely expected to be one of the largest initial public offerings of the year, second only to Uber's IPO in May. It's also...Technologyread more
Fraud investigator Harry Markopolos' accusations extended beyond GE's management to actuaries, auditors and analysts who he claims overlooked billions in liabilities.Marketsread more
Trump's tweet comes a day after Apple put out a press release describing the money it spends on U.S.-based suppliers and vendors.Technologyread more
CNBC combed through Wall Street research to see which stocks are still a buy after their earnings reports.Marketsread more
President Donald Trump held a call on Wednesday with the CEOs of three major U.S. banks, according to people with knowledge of the situation.Marketsread more
Despite aggressive strides, Waymo needs one thing before their self-driving cars become a seriously useful transportation system: people. We talked to the ones closest to it.Technologyread more
Scientists say the smoke plumes, filled with megatons of tiny, harmful particles, could travel to other areas of the world and cause serious respiratory problems for people.Weather & Natural Disastersread more
Some Weight Watchers loyalists applaud Kurbo by WW. But nutritionists worry Kurbo promotes an unhealthy relationship with food during an especially impressionable time.Health and Scienceread more
Benefits from what President Trump called "the biggest reform of all time" to the tax code have dwindled to a faint breeze just 20 months after its enactment, writes John...Politicsread more
Epstein, 66, was found in his cell in Manhattan federal lockup Saturday morning and transferred to a nearby hospital, where he was subsequently pronounced dead.Politicsread more
Air travelers faced delays at U.S. airports on Friday afternoon after a computer issue snarled processing of international arrivals.Airlinesread more
(John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
* Chartbook 1: https://tmsnrt.rs/2MVVbI9
* Chartbook 2: https://tmsnrt.rs/2YIs3LM
LONDON, Aug 12 (Reuters) - Hedge fund managers remain deeply divided about what matters more for the future direction of oil intensifying fears about a global recession or Saudi Arabias production cuts and other supply disruptions.
Hedge funds and other money managers sold futures and options equivalent to 25 million barrels in the six most important contracts linked to petroleum prices in the week to Aug. 6.
But the fund sales essentially reversed purchases of 20 million barrels the previous week and there has been little change in the net position since the middle of June (https://tmsnrt.rs/2MVVbI9).
The most recent week saw portfolio managers sell Brent (-13 million barrels), U.S. gasoline (-8 million), U.S. heating oil (-1 million) and European gasoil (-13 million) while buying NYMEX and ICE WTI (+9 million).
In most cases the net position is more or less the same as it was seven weeks ago; the one exception is U.S. heating oil, where a small net short position has been transformed into a small net long one.
Position changes have probably been dampened by the seasonal absence of senior trading staff during the summer holidays across North America and Europe.
More generally, the hedge fund community is unsure about what matters more the slowdown in consumption growth resulting from the U.S.-China trade war or the slowdown in production growth resulting from OPEC+ cuts.
Funds hold bullish long positions equivalent to 833 million barrels, down from a recent high of more than 1 billion barrels in April, but up from less than 700 million barrels at the start of the year.
But portfolio managers also hold 256 million barrels of bearish short positions, the largest number of bets on a further fall in prices since January.
From a positioning perspective, the balance of risks is roughly equal, with the potential for a liquidation-driven fall in prices more or less matched by the risk of a short-covering rally.
If structural long and short positions in petroleum futures and options are excluded from the analysis, hedge fund managers hold a roughly zero active position overall (https://tmsnrt.rs/2YIs3LM).
Views are likely to remain bifurcated until either the extent of the trade war economic risk or the impact of U.S. sanctions on some supplier countries becomes clearer.
- Oils post-crash bounce fades as buy-the-dip proves a bust (Reuters, Aug. 6)
- Hedge funds were divided on oil, until Trump tweeted (Reuters, Aug. 5)
- Hedge funds active positioning in crude oil (Reuters, July 27, 2017) (Editing by Mark Potter)