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Home Depot is building up a big rally, says top technician

Charts point to big breakout for Home Depot ahead of earnings: Technician
Charts point to big breakout for Home Depot ahead of earnings: Technician

Last week's wild market swings hit nearly everywhere on Wall Street.

But how about over the last month? If you zoom out just a bit, are there any areas in the market that have provided a relative safe haven?

As Cornerstone Macro Head of Technical Analysis Carter Worth pointed out Friday on CNBC's "Options Action" that yes, there are.

"We're going to focus on Home Depot. We know that homebuilders, actually, as a group — while this is not a homebuilder — the actual builders have done nothing for three weeks," said Worth, "but that's called outperformance compared to the market. That's probably because of rates."

While other stocks have struggled, the current interest rate environment has helped keep this group afloat as it gets easier to borrow money to build or renovate housing. Home Depot may not be a homebuilder in the way that a company like Lennar is, but in interest rate environments like this one, it's a primary beneficiary of a consumer who's willing to spend on their home.

Even in periods where Home Depot struggles, as Worth pointed out, the stock acts predictably during its sell-offs, which makes it easier to look for a bounce. He thinks another one is on the way.

"They both came to rest at this trend line," Worth said of Home Depot's two most recent sell-offs, "and I'm going to make the bet that we're going to come to life again off that trend line."

It's not just this most recent sell-off that has Worth feeling bullish on a bounce. That trend line doesn't just fit with the stock relative to its own performance. Home Depot has been killing it against the broader market for the better part of a year as well.

"Of course, it's all about alpha. During the sell-off," said Worth, "the stock has been going, of course, straight up relative to the S&P.

"I think it's a good place to be in terms of a defensive name to some extent, and an offensive name."

Home Depot was 1.4% higher Monday.