Economy

Blackstone's Byron Wien: Beyond 2019, forget about 15% yearly gains on S&P 500 for a while

Key Points
  • The S&P 500 may be on a roll this year, but don't expect it to make double-digit percentage gains in the coming years, says the longtime market strategist.
  • "The equity market will rise maybe 5% annually, and you're going to have to adjust to that" going forward, Wien warns.
  • The S&P 500 went on a wild August ride on trade headlines and recession angst. But this month, the index is up more than 3% and close to record highs.
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Blackstone's Byron Wien: I expect consumer to drive the economy

The S&P 500 may be on a roll this year, but don't expect it to make double-digit percentage gains in 2020 and beyond, longtime market strategist Byron Wien told CNBC on Thursday.

"My view is the S&P is going to end with somewhat improved earnings," said Wien, vice chairman of the private wealth solutions group at Blackstone.

However, Wien added on "Squawk on the Street" that investors should not expect that type of annual gain past the end of the year.

"You're going to have rising [bond yields], so you won't have multiple expansion. So the equity market will rise maybe 5% annually, and you're going to have to adjust to that," he reasoned. "The 10% to 15% [return] years are over for a while."

On Thursday, around 12 p.m. ET, the S&P 500 was about 10 points or so away from its all-time high of 3,027.98. For 2019, the index is up more than 20%. 

In July, Wien predicted the S&P 500 would consolidate around 3,000 for the rest of the year.

Since then, S&P 500 went on a wild August ride on trade headlines and recession angst, finishing nearly 2% lower last month and logging the worst monthly performance since its 6.6% decline back in May.

However, as it became clear the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates again in September, which it did Wednesday, and the U.S. and China worked towards restarting trade talks in October, the S&P 500 is up more than 3% this month.

At the start of 2019, after the late 2018 market rout, Wien included a 15% increase in the S&P 500 for the year as one of his 10 surprises for 2019 — a list he's been compiling since 1986, when he was a chief strategist at Morgan Stanley.

Wien, whose finance career has spanned about 50 years, joined Blackstone in 2009.