— This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on September 30, 2019, Monday.
The latest report from Morgan Stanley acts like wet blanket to the driverless market. Among the major investment banks, Morgan is the most optimistic one to driverless autos. About one year ago, Morgan upgraded Waymo's valuation to $175b but now it is just $105b in the newly released report, with a 40% loss.
That is mainly because Morgan believes the commercial progress of self-driving is slower than its expectation, saying in the past one year, the self-driving industry met a series of difficulties on commercialization and advancing its technology, and Morgan itself underestimated obviously that how long the safety driver will exist and how long can launch sharing self-driving service. We've known that Waymo was Google's driverless project, it sailed with the wind at many aspects in the last one year: getting approval from the regulatory, optimizing driving system and partnering with other auto manufacturers, however, Waymo's self-driving cars are still highly relied on people, the root reason is the real L5 self-driving technology has been difficult to break through, so the safety driver can't leave the driverless car, that results in an increasing loss in sharing self-driving service.
Apart from that, Waymo's development in automated logistics services has also been slower than Morgan Stanley expected, and theses 2 businesses are the main sectors for the valuation of self-driving company. Because of the slow progress in commercialization, some self-driving projects are still looking for investment, including Waymo and Cruise, which belongs to GM, but now investors are not as active as before to it. But, generally, Morgan doesn't change its optimism to self-driving.
The major self-driving projects are still trying to advance its technology and exploring the possibilities in logistics area, including sharing trucks. Morgan estimated that after 10 years, self-driving market will have 2 major players: Tesla has 26% market share, Waymo follows closely with 18%, GM Cruise and Uber on the 3rd and 4th, and with 13% and 6%, respectively.
How will driverless cars develop in the next decade? We are also full of expectations.