These stocks could be the biggest winners if the US completes this phased trade deal with China

Key Points
  • CNBC's proprietary China Trade Index surges on the partial deal announcement. It tracks companies with biggest China exposure and most imports from China.
  • Goldman Sachs screens Russell 1000 Index member companies for those with high revenue exposure to greater China.
  • Another group of big winners are the retailers that are sensitive to tariffs.
US President Donald Trump shows a letter from Chinese President Xi Jinping as he announces an initial trade deal with China at the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC on October 11, 2019.
Nicholas Kamm | AFP | Getty Images

The U.S. and China agreed to the first phase of a "substantial" trade deal that delays tariff hikes scheduled to kick in next week. These stocks are set to win the most from the resolution, if it can be completed.

CNBC's proprietary "China Trade Index" jumped nearly 2.5% on Friday on the partial deal announcement. The 25 companies in the index are among those with the biggest China revenue exposure and the most imports from China. They could have more room to gain as the two countries finalize the agreement.

The index includes typical trade bellwethers Apple, Nike and Caterpillar and also contains many retail names such as Best Buy, Kohl's and Honeywell.

Apple shares hit an all-time high on Friday.

Tariff-sensitive retailers

Another group of big winners is the retailers that are sensitive to tariffs. The group had been beaten down, as higher tariffs would stoke rising costs for the imported goods they sell. The removal of the tariff hike next week should give those retailers a boost.

UBS found retailers with a high percentage of merchandise exposed to Chinese duties based on company reports and conference calls.

Floor & Decor has about 45% products sold to China. Other retailers sensitive to tariffs include Advance Auto Parts and Restoration Hardware, whose stocks gained 1.6% and 2.8% respectively.

Big China exposure

Goldman Sachs screened Russell 1000 Index member companies for those with high revenue exposure to greater China, using 2018 company filings.

The list is concentrated in chipmakers Qorvo, Qualcomm, Micron Technology, Nvidia, Broadcom and Intel. Casino operators Wynn Resorts and Las Vegas Sands rely heavily on their revenue in China. The Yum spin-off Yum China generates all its sales from China, and its stock climbed 3.4% on Friday alone following the deal announcement.

'Bigger tractors'

One particular stock, named by Trump himself, could win big in light of the deal.

As part of the deal, China would significantly step up purchases of U.S. agricultural products to about $40 billion to $50 billion, which is "three times what China has purchased at the highest point thus far," Trump said on Friday.

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The president said farmers will benefit from the "tremendous" amount of orders promised by China, adding they would need to buy bigger tractors from John Deere and other places.

"So I suggest farmers would have to go immediately buy more land and get bigger tractors. They will be available in John Deere and a lot of great distributors," Trump said.

Deere & Co. shares added nearly 2% on Friday.