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Netflix is making a stealth comeback after Disney+ launch, and chart points to more gains

Why investing pro says Disney's a better long-term bet than Netflix
Why investing pro says Disney's a better long-term bet than Netflix

Netflix may be shaking off its summer slump.

Disney has taken the streaming wars by storm after debuting its Disney+ service among a pool of other competitors, but Mark Newton of Newton Advisors thinks Netflix can regain the crown after a sluggish few months.

"The stock is down about 26% from where it peaked last June, so it has been a pretty substantial laggard," Newton said on CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Wednesday. "Recently, you've seen some real signs of this starting to bottom out and turn higher, and really that's what gets me excited, at least in the short run."

Netflix has surged nearly 8% in the past week, while Disney has reversed course and fallen over 1%. Newton thinks this is just the beginning of Netflix's climb back to the top.

"You've actually broken a minor downtrend [Netflix] has formed over the last few months. That's very encouraging. Netflix has started to bottom out and turn higher, so near term you've seen some evidence of bottoming out," Newton said.

Newton says the charts show an even more convincing story when you pull out to a longer-term view.

"You've formed what we call a triangle pattern since last year. The stock pulled back, really bottomed exactly where it needed to even after a $100 decline, so we bottomed out and we appear to be moving back higher in this," he said.

"I think Netflix is actually a much better risk/reward than Disney, which has [become] way overbought. If anything, it's important to be really selective in this kind of environment so I like this in my risk/reward. I think this goes probably to $335, which is my first target, and then right up near $360," said Newton.

Netflix closed Wednesday's trading at $305.16 and was up nearly 1% in Thursday's premarket.

Disney+ has had some mixed news coming out of its Nov. 12 launch. The streaming service reported widespread technical malfunctions that prevented some customers from accessing content. Even with those issues, the company said that over 10 million customers had signed up for Disney+ in just one day.

Nancy Tengler, chief equity strategist at Tengler Wealth Management, prefers Disney over Netflix for the long haul.

Netflix "is near historical highs from a valuation standpoint. You have a 60x multiple vs. Disney's 30x, and you've got negative free cash flow of almost $3 billion. I don't know what to do with that for the long term," Tengler said on the same segment.

Tengler says in her firm's analysts work on Netflix's relative price-to-sales ratio, they prefer when it drops below the bottom orange line on the chart below:

Tengler added that it may be too soon to tell if Disney will eat into Netflix's subscriber growth, but given the cost of producing content for the former king of streaming, she thinks Disney will be a formidable competitor.