A tail wind from the White House.
That's part of the reason why U.S. stocks bounced Tuesday — an announcement from the Trump administration detailing more plans for combating the coronavirus's economic impact, including possibly sending Americans emergency cash payouts. A move by the Federal Reserve to facilitate short-term business lending also helped buoy the U.S. market.
Top commentators, including CNBC's Jim Cramer, say there's still more to watch, even as stocks recover.
Here's they said Tuesday during the rebound:
Cramer, host of "Mad Money," encouraged investors to keep an eye out for opportunities:
"I got up at 3:00. Boy, the market looked great. It was like a bull market. It was going to make up half of what we lost [on Monday]. I go work out, I come back, and we're down. We were going to start losing a lot of what we even tried to gain midday [Monday] before the fall-apart in the last hour with the press conference. So, let's just stay focused on the individual stocks. I know individual stocks are all being brought down by the indices. The great opportunities — and, yes, I'm willing to use that word — come from the obliteration of the futures. Meanwhile, there are companies that are actually doing well. Obviously, there are companies that are doing quite poorly ... but there are going to be opportunities [Tuesday] because there's a lot of give-up."
Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, said much of the market's pain will likely play out in the first half of this year:
"We have made some sizable downward revisions to growth forecasts in the U.S., in the euro area, in China, mostly related to the spreading of coronavirus and the responses to that — in China, also related to the exceptionally poor numbers that we got for January and February which, to us, say that the GDP numbers are going to reflect the very sharp deterioration that we've been seeing there to a much greater degree than we thought. So, this is going to mean global GDP numbers are clearly in recession territory. A lot of people use something like 2.5% for global GDP as a recession criterium, and we're going to be well below that. The one other thing I'd add is that these annual averages, of course, hide quite a lot of variation through the year. It's really going to be the first half of 2020 that's going to see significant contractions in many economies, focused on Q1 in China, focused on Q2 in most other economies including the U.S. and Europe."
Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, expected an economic recovery in the third quarter of 2020 as consumers end their self-isolation:
"When you look to second-quarter GDP, which we expect to show a decline but then to see a recovery in the third quarter by more than 3% because we believe that the self-quarantine will be done, there will be a lot of pent-up demand. Our belief is that maybe we see one or two quarters of GDP and/or earnings declines, but our belief is that the consumers are going to want to come back. They are certainly going to have cabin fever and [will] want to get out and do some spending."
David Katz, president and chief investment officer of Matrix Asset Advisors, suggested picking stocks of companies not as heavily impacted by the spread of the virus:
"You don't have to buy names that are in the travel industry that are down a lot. You can really buy a lot of businesses that probably are not being that affected. Companies like AbbVie and Merck, AT&T, are not being that affected. We also like Duke, Facebook, Home Depot, which is getting shellacked [Tuesday] on the retailer sell-off. They have a better mousetrap. They are a good long-term business. They've got a great balance sheet. So, we like it a lot here. We also like the banks – PNC and Wells Fargo. And the last thing to point out: You definitely are starting to see a lot of insider buying in a lot of places in the market. Insiders generally are investing for the longer term, and if they see an opportunity, they're stepping in. They've done this many times when you've had bear markets. A year later, people kicked themselves for not having followed them."
Richard Kovacevich, the retired former CEO of Wells Fargo, said that even if the United States does go into a recession, it won't last long:
"I'm buying a lot of things including bank stocks, although I own a lot of banks. I do think it's an opportunity. I think we're likely to have a recession, but I think it's going to be V-shaped. This is all about the virus. I mean, we're talking about markets and so forth, but job No. 1 is we have to get this virus under control. We know how to do it. Other countries have done it. And it can be solved relatively quickly. [There] may be a lot of disruptions in our lives to do that, quarantines and so forth, but this is not a financial crisis. It's not a banking crisis. It's a health crisis."