— This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on March 30, 2020, Monday.
Affected by the COVID-19, we did see some countries have took emergency preparations, for example, Vietnam, the third biggest rice exporter, reported last week banning exporting rice last week.
And said it will save around 190,000 tons of rice by the mid of June. One of the biggest wheat exporters, Kazakhstan, announced recently to stop exporting wheat, sugar, potato and carrot, in Europe, Serbia has stopped exporting sunflower oil and other agricultural products.
Russia, one of the leading participants in crop market, has not issued such bans though, said it will evaluate its food exports weekly. Currently, those are just exceptions, and no signs saying this situation will expand further.
Considering the Africa and SEA are still suffering from locust plague and agricultural industry also gets negative impacts from extreme weather recent years, the COVID-10 should raise the attention of food.
But currently, the whole food supply chain may not get big impacts.
Mc Donald CEO and Yum Brand CEO told us that they haven't seen any problems on the supply chain, and governments are taking food supply as one of the major efforts in dealing with outbreaks.
Another positive point is IGC predicts that the grain production of 2020 and 2021 will hit a record high
But IGS also warns that this is just a temporary prediction, it can only be confirmed till the development and lasting time of COVID-19 become clearer.
Compared to supply side, what we should take care now is the influence of panic psychology, the chief economist of FAO warns that
If people and governments stock food with panic, then that will push up food inflation. Now, CPI of major countries has not shown a obvious increase, but once the life back to the normal trajectory, and food demands rise, the we will see some countries' CPI goes up.
We will keep an eye on this issue.