Mad Money

Cramer says his most trusted indicator 'makes me concerned' about the market's trajectory

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Key Points
  • "We're now at plus 7.2% on the S&P short-range oscillator. That's the one I swear by," CNBC's Jim Cramer said.
  • "Anything above plus 5 is overbought. A 7.2 reading makes me concerned," the "Mad Money" host said.
  • "Meanwhile, there are lots of people who are itching for an excuse to take profits. Today's jobless claims number gave them one, and there'll be a lot more bad news behind it," he said.
VIDEO2:1002:10
Jim Cramer expects 'a lot more bad news' after jobless claims top 30 million

Stocks on Wall Street have reached levels that are "too hot" for Jim Cramer's liking.

After the market completed its best month of trading in more than three decades, the host of CNBC's "Mad Money" said he is worried about its near-term trajectory.

"We're now at plus 7.2% on the S&P short-range oscillator. That's the one I swear by. This is the one that called the bottom when it fell to the minus 20s in March," he explained. "Anything above plus 5 is overbought. A 7.2 reading makes me concerned."

The comments come after stocks fell as investors digested the latest economic data and quarterly corporate earnings during the session. Though the major averages all declined on the last day of April, Wall Street's most monitored indexes all finished the month up double digits, topping the gains made in January 1987.

First-time unemployment claims have climbed above 30 million nationwide, due to coronavirus-induced business closures. More than 3.8 million Americans filed for jobless benefits in the past week, according to the Labor Department. Additionally, U.S. consumer spending plunged more than 7% in March from a year ago and gross domestic product fell by 4.8% in the first three months of 2020, according to government data released Wednesday.

Government responses to the health pandemic last month ended the longest period of economic expansion in recorded history, though trillions of dollars in stimulus measures intended to stop the economic bleeding helped carry the market 31% from its March lows, according to FactSet.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 both declined about 1% and the Nasdaq Composite dipped about 0.28% in Thursday's session.

"The market was overbought, and we got hit with yet another Great Depression-sized unemployment number. That is not exactly confidence-inspiring, for me," Cramer said.

"Meanwhile, there are lots of people who are itching for an excuse to take profits. Today's jobless claims number gave them one, and there'll be a lot more bad news behind it."

In the month of April, the Dow Jones gained 11%, the S&P 500 advanced 12.7%, and the Nasdaq rose 15.5%.

"The rally from the lows made perfect sense, as did a big chunk of last month's crash," Cramer said.

"The bottom line is that we're going to need something new, something different," he continued. "I don't know what it would be. Without it, though, the market is simply too stretched at these levels after a fantastic run and if we rally without some" positive news "I can't blame anyone ... for ringing the register."

VIDEO11:4111:41
Jim Cramer says his most trusted market indicator 'makes me concerned'

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