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Zoom Video chart suggests rally is showing signs of distress, strategist says

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It's not just Amazon and Netflix.

Some other stay-at-home plays are getting a bump. Etsy, Chewy, GrubHub and Farfetch are all higher this year. The best, videoconferencing stock Zoom, has risen 155% in 2020 and now has a larger market cap than more than two-thirds of S&P 500 companies.

On Zoom, Miller Tabak chief equity strategist Matt Maley says red flags are forming in the charts.

"Not only has it gone up 150%, it's got a [price-to-equity ratio] now of well above 300. But more importantly, you know, this market is so dependent on momentum right now. And this is a stock that looks like it has good momentum, but the quality of that momentum is starting to wane," Maley said on CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Wednesday.

The stock's moving average convergence divergence line, a trend indicator, hints at a reversal, he adds.

Its MACD chart, which looks at short-term moving averages rather than the 50- and 200-day averages, has rolled over a couple of times, he said, adding: "As the stock has made new highs, it's made lower lows, so it shows that that momentum really isn't there like it was a month or two ago."

Strategic Wealth Partners President Mark Tepper is betting on two other stocks to take over the stay-at-home rally.

"Two examples would be Dollar General and O'Reilly," Tepper said during the same segment. "Unfortunately, the byproducts of the virus, those are here to stay, so job destruction, high unemployment. Dollar General is your typical trade-down stock. When times get bad, their business ramped up. Seventy-eight percent of their revenues come from consumables and 80% of the stimulus money that was recently sent to families has gone towards grocery stores and then there's more talk of that to come."

Dollar General has risen 15% this year, with the bulk of those gains seen this quarter.

"We like O'Reilly because we think this is going to be the year of the road trip, no one flying, gas is cheap. So people are going to put extra miles on their car. The problem is our cars are the oldest they've ever been. They need to be fixed ,and O'Reilly's the answer there," Tepper said.

O'Reilly has not performed as well as Dollar General. It is down 7% this year, though it has outperformed since April.

Disclosure: Strategic Wealth Partners holds Dollar General and O'Reilly. 

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