— This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on May 7, 2020, Thursday.
The April ADP data were unprecedented， according to the ADP researchers, that's more than double the total number of jobs lost during the entire subprime crisis.
On an industry basis, the service sector lost 16 million jobs in April, especially in hotels, bars and restaurants. In terms of size, large companies shed the most jobs, 9m, small ones 6m and medium-sized ones 5.3m. The data was slightly better than market expectations, but it made clear that it did not reflect the full impact of the outbreak on overall employment. Considering that this is a special period, the ADP data is the result of model extrapolation after anonymous investigation. Economists at Goldman Sachs reckon the real figure is several million more than the ADP report.
While April's decline was the largest on record, ADP noted some signs that the worst of the worst may be over for the U.S. job market.
We have some HR system of the track, the number of new job postings and the number of screenings and background checks when people get hired. And those numbers just kind of fell off a cliff at the end of March all the way into April, the last couple of weeks, we've begun to see those numbers actually stabilize, it's possible the companies already are anticipating some kind of normalization or some kind of opening in certain states.
Even so, the layoffs are far from over. The U.S. government's Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) has eased some wage pressure on small businesses to some extent, but large businesses that cannot make a profit are still struggling to survive. Even as the US economy starts to reboot, some companies' business models will be challenged for a long time. Some popular new economy enterprises start to layoff recently.
Airbnb, for example, announced on Tuesday that it would cut 1,900 jobs, or 25 percent of its work force, while Uber announced on Wednesday that it would cut 3,700 jobs, or 14 percent. MGM also warned its 63,000 furloughed employees on Tuesday of job cuts. Juul, an e-cigarette company embroiled in a scandal last year, is also reported to be cutting nearly 1,000 jobs. The labor department's official non-farm payrolls report for April, due on Friday, is expected to show a decline of 21.5 million jobs and a jump in the unemployment rate to 16 percent from 4.4 percent in March. Some fed officials point out that the real number could be higher.
St. Louis Fed President
Yeah, the unemployment rate is going to be extremely high. We think, you know, 20 percent isn't unlikely, could even be higher than that.
I think can come down under double digits by the. By the end of the year. Once you get past the initial shock so that I think this is a case where unemployment goes way up, then comes down pretty sharply.
We will also keep an eye on the latest developments in the U.S. job market.