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CNBC and Change Research Release Results of Latest "States of Play" Poll

CNBC and Change Research Release Results of Latest "States of Play" Poll

Latest CNBC/Change Research Poll Suggests Upcoming Presidential Election May Fall on the Less than 5% of Voters Who Remain Undecided; Marked Racial Divide in Impacts of Coronavirus

 ENGLEWOOD CLIFFS, N.J., June 3, 2020 – CNBC and Change Research today announced the results of their latest joint "States of Play" poll, conducted May 29th – May 31st.

The poll reveals among the six major battleground states (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), those planning to re-elect President Donald Trump and those planning to vote for presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden are neck and neck (46% v. 47% respectively), with their candidate choice correlating directly with party affiliation. Therefore, the election could seemingly fall on the less than 5% of respondents who note they are still undecided.

Meanwhile, in the midst of a national crisis in race relations, black and white voters in battleground states express vastly different experiences. Black voters are more likely to report that they know someone with coronavirus (66% v. 47% of white voters) and that their household has seen lost wages due to the pandemic (48% v. 41% of white voters.) 52% of black voters say they have spent their savings due to COVID-19, compared to 27% of white voters, and 16% have gone into debt, compared to 9% of white voters. Black voters are also more concerned about health and the economy than white voters; for example, 76% of black voters in battlegrounds have "very serious concerns" about themselves or a family member getting sick, compared to 32% of white voters, and less black voters showed optimism that things are improving (19% v. 48% of white voters.)

CNBC and Change Research polled over 3,900 anticipated general election voters from the above-mentioned battleground states, as well as over 1,400 anticipated general election voters nationally, to determine economic sentiment amongst voters. Additional key findings from the most recent CNBC/Change Research "States of Play" poll include: 

  • Ahead of the upcoming election in battleground states, presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden leads President Trump in Florida, Michigan, and North Carolina, while President Trump leads Biden in Arizona and Pennsylvania. They are tied in Wisconsin. 
  •  As the country works its way through the pandemic, attitudes and opinions on returning to work, returning to stores, and overall economic outlook are evolving. In fact, optimism about respondents' own job security and personal finance has rebounded to pre-COVID-19 levels.
  • Still, a little over half of battleground voters (51%) think "normalcy" will not return for six months or longer. 
  • When vaccines become available, 50% percent of voters say they will likely get one. 26% said they definitely will not.
  • The overwhelming majority of Americans would prefer to keep receiving an additional 600 dollars from their unemployment check then a bonus to return to work (60% v. 40%.) 

CNBC Washington D.C. Correspondents Eamon Javers and Kayla Tausche, Senior Economic Reporter Steve Liesman and Senior Health and Science Reporter Meg Tirrell will reveal the results of the CNBC/Change Research "States of Play Poll" today, Wednesday, June 3rd throughout CNBC's Business Day programming, will additionally cover tomorrow, Thursday, June 4th. For more information on the survey including the full results and methodology and in-depth articles, go to: https://www.changeresearch.com/post/states-of-play-battleground-wave-6.   

Methodology:

Between May 29-31, 2020, Change Research surveyed 1,457 likely general election voters nationally and 3,958 likely general election voters in the battleground states of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The margin of error as traditionally calculated among the national sample is ±2.57% and among the battleground sample is ±1.56%. Change Research reaches voters via targeted online ads that point people to an online survey instrument. Its Dynamic Online Sampling establishes and continuously rebalances advertising targets across region, age, gender, race, and partisanship to dynamically deliver large samples that accurately reflect the demographics of a population. In the national survey and the survey of battleground states, post-stratification was done on gender, age, region, education, race, and 2016 presidential vote.

For additional methodological information, visit https://www.changeresearch.com/methodology-and-accuracy.

For more information contact:

CNBC

Jennifer Dauble

201-735-4721

jennifer.dauble@nbcuni.com

Change Research

press@changeresearch.com 

About CNBC:

CNBC is the recognized world leader in business news and provides real-time financial market coverage and business content consumed by more than 340 million people per month across all platforms. The network's 14 live hours a day of business programming in North America (weekdays from 5:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. ET) is produced at CNBC's global headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J., and includes reports from CNBC News bureaus worldwide. CNBC at night features a mix of new reality programming, CNBC's highly successful series produced exclusively for CNBC and a number of distinctive in-house documentaries.

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About Change Research:

Change Research provides fast, affordable, and accurate technology-based polling across the country. Since launching in July of 2017, Change Research has conducted over 1,000 polls for candidates, media, and causes at all levels and budgets, surveying nearly 2 million people. 
Learn more at www.changeresearch.com and find some of our recent public poll results on Twitter @changepolls.