CCTV Transcripts

CCTV Script 12/06/20

— This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on June 12, 2020, Friday.

When talking about the recent economic development in China, we have noticed that a lot of people have used a word called "Impressive".

In particular, the recent release of China's official and Caixin PMI data both showed that manufacturing activity was expanding in May, showing a clear V-shaped rebound.

On the consumption side, although consumer confidence may not have fully recovered to pre-epidemic levels, data from auto sales, restaurants and real estate show a gradual return to normality. Michael Spencer, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Deutsche Bank, told us he expects an improvement in domestic demand to help the Chinese economy grow 5%-6% in the second quarter.

Michael Spencer.

Deutsche Bank's chief economist and head of research for Asia Pacific. 

I think we're gonna see much better numbers in the next month and release probably consistent maybe with year on year growth. Um, so I said. the domestic demand, a part of the Chinese economy has recovered well. we are expecting another 5 or 6% quarter on quarter growth in Q2, so it is gonna look very impressive, I think.

Given that most economies around the world are likely to contract sharply in the second quarter, China's comparative advantage is clear. It is attractive to international funds seeking investment opportunities, especially long-term investment opportunities. In fact, after years of observation, more and more money managers are turning to China, this trend, which began before the outbreak, has now regained stability after some volatility during the outbreak. Data from fund tracker EPFR Global show that allocations to China by more than 800 funds remained stable in April. Some argued that US pressuring US-listed Chinese companies may active the Chinese market.

Globally, however, China's V-shaped recovery is an exceptional case. Some argue that it is difficult for many economies to replicate a similar recovery path, and that full recovery of the world economy may take longer, recently, the capital market is increasingly worried about the second wave of the EPIDEMIC in the United States, which will in turn form the external risks of China's economic development.

Michael Spencer

Deutsche Bank's chief economist and head of research for Asia Pacific. 

 To be honest, in my view it might be the main risks to the global picture and therefore to the Chinese picture have been the US, and our concern that as the us reopens, we thought too soon. Then you get another wave of infections and other round of lockdown as if you will. And the us really struggles to grow. 

Richard Martin. 

IMA Asia's managing director

I dont think we could have many countries to we that's a V shape recovery  

everyone staydown for another two or three months before they come back 

The Covid-19 wave, the first wave dies down, but we now have two or three economic waves: Unemployment, bankruptcy, default, which are gonna build through the end of the year.

Given this, China's foreign trade is likely to remain under pressure for some time, and we may continue to see export growth decline in the coming months.

However, the export of electronic products has been better than the market expected due to many people working from home during the epidemic. Beyond that, another risk on the market's radar is U.S.-China relations. The market believes that as long as there is no substantial operation similar to raising tariffs, the first phase of the agreement has been signed and implemented, it will not have much impact on China's economy.

We will keep an eye on this issue.