— This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on June 24, 2020, Wednesday.
Among the rescue plans for employment launched by governments of various countries, the most representative ones are JBS in Europe and PPP in America. Because of these programs, unemployment in the United States and Europe has stayed within a relatively acceptable range from record highs But are these protected jobs really safe? The answer is probably not, at least according to Allianz, the asset management company.
Allianz estimates that nine million people in Europe's top five countries could be at risk of losing their jobs, or about 20 percent of all short-term work plans, which it calls zombie jobs. Because of the weak economic recovery, these positions may be removed after the program ends. The risk of these jobs being removed would be much higher. Now they are just a fluke. Of course, this is not to say that the rescue plan is not good, but that effective economic stimulus measures and boosting measures should complement each other, especially for the construction and transportation industries that are hit hard.
"If you continue just giving incentives for people to be in partial unemployment, this is not enough for boosting mobility from one sector that is maybe in a difficult situation for a year or even 18 months to another sector, which is much more productive,"
In the U.S., 14% of businesses said they would have to lay off workers after running out of government bailout money, according to a survey by the National Federation of Independent Business. Forty-seven per cent of companies receiving government money said they needed more over the next 12 months.
We know that during the outbreak, the U.S. government increased unemployment benefits by $600 a week, which will end at the end of July. If the unemployed cannot go back to work, millions will face a precipitous drop in income and consumption may be curtailed. The administration is considering another $1 trillion stimulus package, recently, some economic data has been good and the stock market has been rising. But does that translate into more jobs? It may need to wait and see.
JP Morgan, chair of global research
When you have eye popping numbers down and no activity, some activities going to look pretty good for the next one or two months. So I think you're going to have a summer where the numbers continue to look pretty good on the macro-front , I think it's going to be more questions though in the fourth quarter of the year, when you look at the hiring trends, when some of these programs start to roll off and hit some of the deadlines. And we really need to see, um, is whether the hiring comes through
On the other hand, the development of the epidemic in the United States is also a major uncertainty for the job market. Encouraging rework could also pose more potential risks if the outbreak is not effectively contained. On Monday, Mr. Trump signed an executive order that would further restrict work visas. The White House says that would save more American jobs, but it was quickly met with public opposition from big American technology companies. That could backfire, the Wall Street Journal reported.
But if so, jobs are a big issue for the U.S. government and will be one of the big issues during the campaign. We will continue to pay close attention to the employment issue.