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CNBC and Change Research Release Results of Latest "States of Play" Poll

Latest CNBC/Change Research Poll Shows Biden Holds Lead over Trump in Battleground States as COVID-19 Concerns Rise

ENGLEWOOD CLIFFS, N.J., July 1, 2020 – CNBC and Change Research today announced the results of their latest joint "States of Play" poll, conducted June 26th – June 28th.

The poll finds Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by six points (50% to 44%) in the six major battleground states (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin). This is up three points since the most recent CNBC/Change Research poll, conducted two weeks prior. Biden has a national lead of eight points (49% Biden, 41% Trump).

Meanwhile, battleground voters are increasingly concerned about the impact of COVID-19, up fourteen points since two weeks earlier, with 55% now saying things are getting worse. The number one factor battleground voters blame for the recent uptick in coronavirus hospitalizations is President Donald Trump (35%), followed by people not wearing masks (34%), states reopening too quickly (32%), and people not social distancing (29%).

CNBC and Change Research polled over 3,700 anticipated general election voters from the six previously noted battleground states, as well as over 1,660 anticipated general election voters nationally, to determine economic sentiment amongst voters. Additional key findings from the most recent CNBC/Change Research "States of Play" poll include:

  • Democratic nominee Joe Biden holds his lead on President Donald Trump in all six key battleground states. Biden is also winning at least half of the vote (50%) in five of the six states, except for Michigan (48%).
  • A record low 46% of battleground state voters approve of President Donald Trump's job performance (54% disapprove). Meanwhile, approval of how the President is handling the coronavirus outbreak also dipped to a record low 43%, down two points since the last poll conducted two weeks ago.   
  • Battleground voters are increasingly concerned about COVID-19, with those recording 'serious concerns' up ten points since two weeks ago (now 49%). The biggest change is an increase in Republican battleground voters' concern (also up ten points from two weeks ago).
  • Battleground voters are taking increased measures of precaution, with 79% avoiding crowds (up from 74% two weeks ago) and 75% wearing masks (up from 68%).
  • Battleground voters continue to view the economy, jobs and cost of living as their biggest concern, (50% vs. 53% in mid-June). Now, they report COVID-19 as their second biggest concern, up twelve points since the last poll (42%), with a marginal lead over healthcare and drug costs (41%).
  • 55% of battleground voters (up from 53% two weeks ago) do not agree that "Donald Trump has done enough to help working Americans make it through the current economic downturn." 48% of battleground voters report lost wages in their household as a result of COVID-19. 77% are still experiencing wage cuts. 36% of battleground voters report they or someone in their household lost a job or was furloughed as a result of COVID-19.  75% remain out of a job or furloughed. 54% of battleground voters say they are "more concerned that if we don't extend the additional $600 a week in unemployment benefits that people who have lost jobs will fall further behind and the recession will get deeper."

CNBC Washington D.C. Correspondents Eamon Javers and Kayla Tausche will reveal the results of the CNBC/Change Research "States of Play Poll" today, Wednesday, July 1st throughout CNBC's Business Day programming. CNBC Washington D.C. Reporter Ylan Mui will additionally cover on-air tomorrow, Thursday, July 2nd.

For more information on the survey including the full results and methodology and in-depth articles, go to: https://www.changeresearch.com/post/states-of-play-battleground-wave-8.   

Methodology:

Between June 26-28, 2020, Change Research surveyed 1,663 likely general election voters nationally and 3,729 likely general election voters in the battleground states of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The margin of error as traditionally calculated among the national sample is ±2.4% and among the battleground sample is ±1.6%. Change Research reaches voters via targeted online ads that point people to an online survey instrument. Its Dynamic Online Sampling establishes and continuously rebalances advertising targets across region, age, gender, race, and partisanship to dynamically deliver large samples that accurately reflect the demographics of a population. In the national survey and the survey of battleground states, post-stratification was done on gender, age, region, education, race, and 2016 presidential vote.

For additional methodological information, visit www.changeresearch.com/methodology.


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