The stock market's performance over the next 3 months will determine the election, Strategas says

Former Vice President Joe Biden speaks about the Trump administration's handling of the coronavirus pandemic during a campaign event in Wilmington, Delaware, June 30, 2020.
Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

(This story is for CNBC Pro subscribers only.)

The stock market will determine the outcome of the 2020 election, according to the head of policy research at Strategas Research Partners. 

If "stocks are higher the incumbent party wins, stocks are lower the opposition party wins," Dan Clifton said on CNBC's "The Exchange" on Monday.

"The S&P 500 has predicted every presidential election winner since 1984 and 87% of the winners since 1928, and it's really about the performance of stocks in the 90-day period before the election," Clifton added. 

Investors are evaluating what a re-election for President Donald Trump or the election of former vice president and democratic candidate Joe Biden would mean for equities.

The consensus on Wall Street is that Trump would be better for stocks, but JPMorgan said Monday the coronavirus will force Biden to moderate his policies that could create headwinds for U.S. business. Trump, who lags Biden in national polls by 8.7 percentage points, is liked by the investing community for his corporate tax cuts.