This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics.
"The trend is your friend – until the end," they say. The trend now is one of investors hiding in Big Tech/secular-growth plays as the average stock stagnates.
There's a rational basis for all this: a scarcity of long-duration cash flows and profit growth raises the premium on those that have it; ultra-low interest rates raise the implied value of the distant future today; the winner-take-most dynamics of digital platform businesses have only accelerated in the current environment.
Yet even rational market patterns can get over-believed and at the margins traders can get over-excited by the momentum. Probably skirting those extremes in some parts of the Nasdaq-plex. Short-term trader sentiment is bumping against overbullish extremes, etc.