Trading Nation

One surprise stay-at-home stock winner could have more upside, chart analyst says

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Trading Nation: Deere surges on Baird upgrade—Why experts don't agree

It's not just Zoom Video and Netflix benefiting from stay-at-home trends.

Farm equipment maker Deere is also a beneficiary.

Analysts at Baird on Monday upgraded the stock to outperform, citing strong consumer demand for outdoor products such as lawn mowers and garden equipment over the past three months.

Shares rallied 3% Monday. The stock is now down 5% for the year, less than the 16% drop for the XLI industrial ETF.

Deere could have more gains, says Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies.

"We could see upside follow through here in the near term. Momentum certainly supports it," Stockton told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Monday.

Deere has bounced more than 50% off March lows. By comparison, the S&P 500 has rallied 44% off its own trough the same month. 

Stockton does see limits to the rally. 

"However, I would note that Deere is really a long-term underperformer," said Stockton. "The chart has been range bound for really years now, and it puts very significant resistance around $180, so that's a very big hurdle for Deere. There's good room between here and there, so that supports upside follow through, but I think it will be challenged near those highs."

Deere closed Monday's session at $163.83. 

Quint Tatro, president of Joule Financial, warns that Deere is becoming expensive as it bounces back.

"When you look at the numbers, even if John Deere turns around and hits the numbers that the analyst projects for 2021, it shows them with a multiple of about 17, which for this stock is very, very rich," Tatro said during the same "Trading Nation" segment. "I'm really not sure you're getting a lot of value with this, especially with so much debt. Deere has an incredible amount of debt on the balance sheet."

Tatro says while he's encouraged by the Baird call, he would not be a buyer here.

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