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CNBC and Change Research Release Results of Latest "States of Play" Poll

Latest CNBC/Change Research Poll Shows Biden Holds Lead While the Battleground Ballot Tightens

ENGLEWOOD CLIFFS, N.J., July 29, 2020 – CNBC and Change Research today announced the results of their latest joint "States of Play" poll, conducted July 24th – July 26th.

The poll finds that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by three points (48% to 45%) among likely voters in the six major battleground states (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). While the battleground ballot has tightened, Biden continues to lead across each state.

Meanwhile, as the U.S. sets new records for hospitalizations, likely battleground voters' serious concerns about the coronavirus remain at 71%. Concern remained highest in Florida, with 76% expressing serious concerns as a slight incline in the Rust Belt was offset by a slight decline in the Sunbelt. The number of likely battleground voters saying 'things are getting worse' decreased three points; however, majorities across every battleground state except for Michigan say 'things are getting worse.'

CNBC and Change Research polled over 2,500 likely general election voters from the six previously noted battleground states, as well as over 1,000 likely general election voters nationally, to determine economic sentiment amongst voters. Additional key findings from the most recent CNBC/Change Research "States of Play" poll include:

  • Likely battleground voters are equally divided over who would do a better job recovering the economic impact of COVID-19.
  • 52% say Biden and the Democrats are doing a better job of handling COVID-19 as well as ensuring economic relief for COVID-19 goes to those who need it most, rather than the wealthy and well-connected.
  • 52% trust President Trump and the Republicans more when it comes to getting people back to work.
  • Likely battleground voters were asked about a number of policies being proposed to deal with the economy and COVID-19 relief:
  • 80% support an additional round of direct payments of up to $1,200 for individuals making less than $99,000.
  • 77% support funding for COVID-19 testing and contact tracing.
  • 76% support investing in expansion of broadband internet access.
  • 68% support relief to state and local governments facing budget shortfalls due to the coronavirus outbreak.
  • 62% support extending the $600 a week enhanced unemployment benefits for those who have lost their jobs to COVID-19.
  • 54% support reserving funding for K-12 education for schools that resume in-person classes in the fall.
  • 32% support giving corporations legal immunity from COVID-19 related lawsuits.
  • The number of likely battleground voters who say certain activities are safe again is on the incline (shopping – 60%, the beach – 53%, the hair/nail salon – 52%). About a third of likely battleground voters (32%) say it is safe for children to go to daycare and 36% say it is safe for students to return to school.
  • Roughly half (49%) of battleground voters and 58% of likely national voters say they are likely to get the COVID-19 vaccine once one becomes available.
  • 15% in the battlegrounds say they 'maybe' will. 36% say they are 'unlikely' to.
  • Nationally, a 78% majority of Democrats and just over half of independents (54%) say they will be vaccinated, 47% of Republicans say they will not.
  • Nationally, young people (68%) are the most likely to be vaccinated, followed by seniors (64%). A 72% majority of college grads will be vaccinated compared to 47% of non-college educated voters.
  • Nationally, those who self-identify as 'white' are the most likely to be vaccinated (61%). Half of likely voters who self-identify as 'Black' do not plan to get vaccinated.

CNBC Washington D.C. Correspondents Eamon Javers and Kayla Tausche will reveal the results of the CNBC/Change Research "States of Play Poll" today, Wednesday, July 29th throughout CNBC's Business Day programming.

For more information on the survey including the full results and methodology and in-depth articles, go to: https://www.changeresearch.com/post/states-of-play-battleground-wave-10.  

Methodology:

Between July 24-26, 2020, Change Research surveyed 1,039 likely general election voters nationally and 2,565 likely general election voters in the battleground states of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The margin of error as traditionally calculated among the national sample is ±3.04% and among the battleground sample is ±1.94%. Change Research reaches voters via targeted online ads that point people to an online survey instrument. Its Dynamic Online Sampling establishes and continuously rebalances advertising targets across region, age, gender, race, and partisanship to dynamically deliver large samples that accurately reflect the demographics of a population. In the national survey and the survey of battleground states, post-stratification was done on gender, age, region, education, race, and 2016 presidential vote.

For additional methodological information, visit www.changeresearch.com/methodology.


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