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Markets underappreciate the rising odds of a Covid-19 vaccine and are failing to price in the better chances of an FDA-approved inoculation by the end of November, Goldman Sachs told clients.
Goldman cited revised projections from consulting firm Good Judgment, which in early June saw less than a 10% chance of a vaccine being "broadly available" by the end of March 2021, now it puts that chance at nearly 40%.
Goldman said Wednesday it agrees with those findings, telling clients "there is a good chance that at least one vaccine will be FDA-approved by the end of November and broadly distributed by the middle of 2021."
It also gave clients an options trade that would pay off with a faster-then-expected vaccine.