More positive vaccine news fueled the market rally on Monday with the Dow reaching a new all-time high. Travel and leisure stocks led the gains, while tech shares lagged behind once again as the market rotation continued.
Behind Monday's market
- The Dow gained 1.6%, hitting a new intraday all-time high during the session, and closing at a new record high for the first time since Feb. 12
- The Dow is 64.44% above its 52-week low from March 23
- The S&P 500 closed up 1.16% at a new record close, its 24th this year
- The S&P is 65.47% above its 52-week low from March 23
- The Russell 2,000 gained 2.37%, hitting a new intraday high and closing at a new record high
- The Russell 2,000 is 84.78% above its 52-week low from March 18
- The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.8% for its second-straight positive session
- The Nasdaq Composite is 79.81% above its March 23 52-week low
- Ten out of 11 S&P sectors advanced on Monday. Energy was the top performer, gaining 6.5%.
— Gina Francolla
Dow, S&P 500 notch new record close in vaccine rally
Wall Street pulled off another record-breaking session on Monday on the back of positive news on the vaccine front. The Dow jumped 472 points to hit a record close, powered by travel stocks and big banks. The S&P 500 rallied 1.2%, also reaching a record closing high. The Nasdaq eked out a 0.8% gain as investors continued to rotate out of high-flying tech shares.
— Yun Li
Fed likely to change type of Treasury securities it buys, not the amount -JPMorgan
JPMorgan economists said they are changing their call on the Fed and now expect it to buy longer-dated Treasurys rather than change the amount of securities it is buying.
The Fed is buying about $80 billion in Treasurys a month, and some Fed watchers expected the Fed to increase those purchases at the December meeting.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said after the last meeting that the Fed was providing the right amount of accommodation, but he also said Fed officials discussed ways to change the program. The economists said the accelerating spread of the virus may now be concerning Fed officials, and they may believe both they and Congress have to do more.
The economists said they believe the Fed will follow the approach of Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren. Rosengren would like to leave the notional amount of purchases as is, but lengthen the average maturity of the purchases to push down rates at the longer end of the curve. That would encourage more interest-sensitive spending, the JPMorgan economists wrote.
The 10-year yield, which influences many consumer and business loans, has been rising and that could be contained if the Fed were to target that security with its purchases.
Telsey upgrades Home Depot to outperform from market perform
Telsey upgraded Home Depot to outperform from market perform after the company announced it was acquiring industrial wholesaler HD Supply Holdings. "By acquiring HD Supply, Home Depot should leap into the market leading position in the fragmented and growing $55B maintenance, repair, and operations market from its current market share of less than 5% today," analyst Joseph Feldman said. The firm also said it expects the acceleration in housing to be "long-lasting" due to the coronavirus. Shares of the company are up 4% this month.
Final hour of trading: Dow heads for record close
The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 300 points, putting it on pace for a record close with less than an hour left in the session. That gain came as investors piled into downbeat value names. The S&P 500, meanwhile, advanced 0.9% and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.5%.
California announces new Covid restrictions
The majority of California's counties will be in the most extensive tier of restrictions to slow the spread of Covid-19 beginning on Tuesday, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced. Under the rules laid out by the state, retail businesses in the "purple tier" areas are limited to 25% capacity, while gyms, restaurants and places of worship cannot operate indoors.
For the latest news on the pandemic, follow along with CNBC's coronavirus live blog.
— Jesse Pound
History is 'rhyming,' and that could mean big gains for small caps: Bank of America
Bank of America's Stephen Suttmeier said small-cap stocks could be on the verge of some big gains moving forward after the 2020 election.
"Similar to the Presidential Elections from 2012 and 2016, history is rhyming and the Russell 2000 also has the potential for a big upside breakout after the 2020 Presidential Election," he wrote in a note to clients.
The Russell 2000, which tracks small-cap stocks, jumped more than 1.5% on Monday to reach an all-time high. For the month, the index is up more than 15%.
If the Russell 2000 finds support at 1,700, Suttmeier says, the index could surge all the way up to 2,160. That would be 24% above the index's close on Friday.
Off-price retailers at an 'attractive entry point' ahead of earnings, Barclays says
This week features a bevy of earnings reports, including Walmart, Home Depot and Kohl's after the bell on Monday and Target, Lowe's and TJX on Tuesday morning. Barclays analyst Adrienne Lih said in a note that the results seen so far this season have bolstered the firm's buy rating on the specialty retail sector and that off-price retailers were particularly enticing.
"We believe this is the time to be stepping into the Off-Pricers, as history has shown the resilience of the value model, particularly in recessionary periods as consumers are forced to trade down for value," the note said.
In addition to TJX, the note also pointed to Burlington and Ross Stores as attractive opportunities with upcoming earnings reports.
— Jesse Pound
Fed's Clarida repeats Fed commitment to keeping interest rates low
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida reiterated Monday the central bank's commitment to keeping interest rates low even when unemployment start to fall. In remarks to the Brookings Institution, Clarida pledged that "policy will not tighten solely because the unemployment rate has fallen below any particular econometric estimate of its long-run natural level." Previously, the Fed would start hiking preemptively when unemployment fell, interpreting it as a sign of coming inflation. However, a new policy approach commits the Fed to keeping rates until inflation has averaged above 2% annually "for some time."
– Jeff Cox
Value outperformance over growth continues
Value stocks were outperforming against their growth counterparts on Monday as Moderna's vaccine data spurred optimism over a potentially swift economic recovery.
The iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD) jumped more than 1.5%, while the iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF (IWF) traded just 0.2% higher. Value's strong performance on Monday comes after leaving growth names in the dust last week, as the IWD jumped more than 5% over that time period.
Leisure and entertainment stocks pop on vaccine news
Shares of leisure and entertainment stocks rose on Monday following news about Moderna's 94% effective Covid-19 vaccine. The Invesco Dynamic Leisure & Entertainment ETF is up 2.7% on Monday, on pace for its second-straight positive day. The ETF, which trades under ticker PEJ, is up almost 20% this month, on pace for its best month since Apr. 2009.
Cinemark, Eventbrite, Lions Gate, Live Nation, Qurate Retail, Performance Food, TripAdvisor, AMC, Bloomin' Brands, Hilton Worldwide and Madison Square Garden are some of the fund's month-to-date winners.
— Gina Francolla, Maggie Fitzgerald
Markets at midday: Dow jumps 400 points, hits all-time high
The major averages were broadly higher at midday as positive vaccine data from Moderna lifted market sentiment. The Dow traded 400 points higher, or 1.4%, and hit a record high. The S&P 500 gained 1%. The Nasdaq Composite lagged, but still managed a 0.6% advance.
Here are some of the biggest market movers midday
HD Supply, Home Depot — Shares of HD Supply rallied after Home Depot agreed to buy back the wholesaler of industrial goods for about $8 billion, or $56 per share in cash.
Tilray — Tilray shares were under pressure after a Jefferies analyst downgraded the cannabis company to underperform from hold.
Dow jumps to new record high
The Dow rose more than 450 points to hit a new all-time intraday high of 29,942 on Monday following optimistic preliminary data from Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine trial.
— Pippa Stevens
Dow on track for record close
— Nate Rattner
Morgan Stanley says S&P 500 to rise 9% by the end of next year
Morgan Stanley strategists said in a note on Monday that the S&P 500 will rise by roughly 9% by the end of 2021, with a rebound for cyclical stocks fueling the climb. The firm set its target for the broad market index at 3,900 for the end of next year, but it predicted a volatile time in the near term with a trading range of 3,150 to 3,550.
CNBC Pro subscribers can read more about the call here.
— Jesse Pound
Morgan Stanley leads Street in seeing robust 6% GDP growth in 2021
Continuing momentum from the 2020 stock market surge combined with rising prospects for a coronavirus vaccine will lead to powerful economic growth next year, according to Morgan Stanley. The firm's economists expect GDP to rise 6% in 2021, which would be the strongest yearly growth since 1984. The Wall Street consensus now is around 3.8%. "The pace of recovery picks up steam after a difficult winter as it returns to normalization. We expect the rising threat of COVID-19 to dampen growth through the first months of 2021, followed by further fiscal support from the prospective new administration in reaction to the rise in hospitalization," the firm said in its annual forecast.
Along with the GDP surge, Morgan Stanley sees inflation sustainably reaching the key 2% level in late 2021, leading the Federal Reserve to slow down the rate of its asset purchases starting in January 2022. The central bank is then expected to start raising its benchmark short-term borrowing rate by Q3 of 2023, a forecast also well ahead of consensus and Fed estimates.
– Jeff Cox
Citigroup sees upside of just 6% for the S&P 500 in 2021
Investors can expect the broader market to build on its 2020 gains next year, just not by much, according to Citigroup.
Tobias Levkovich, the firm's chief U.S. equity strategist, said he expects the S&P 500 to rise to 3,800 by the end of 2021. That target implies a 6% upside from Friday's close of 3,585.15.
Levkovich's 2021 S&P 500 target is lower than those of other strategists on the Street. Last week, Goldman Sachs said it expects a divided government and a vaccine to drive the index to 4,300. On Monday, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson noted he sees the S&P 500 rising by roughly 9% to 3,900 next year.
"An S&P 500 target of 3,800 seems achievable by December 2021, but rotation to value most likely limits the gain as secular growers lose some of their mojo," said Levkovich. "The highly valued tech names may run into some slowdown that impacts their lofty P/Es, and the heavy market cap representation plausibly holds back the overall index."
Piper Sandler raises price target on Moderna to $166 from $136
Piper Sandler raised its price target on Moderna from $136 to a Street high of $166 after preliminary trial data showed Moderna's coronavirus vaccine to be more than 94% effective. "This impressive response demonstrates protection for the most vulnerable populations, including the elderly (65+)," analyst Edward Tenthoff said. The firm also reiterated its overweight rating on the stock.
Shares of Moderna advanced more than 6% during early trading on Monday.
— Michael Bloom
New York business index increases but at a slower pace
New York's manufacturing activity continued to grow for November, but at a reduced pace from October and below Wall Street expectations. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey registered a 6.3 reading, representing the net level of firms reporting improved conditions. That was below the 12.1 estimate from economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The employment index hit its highest level in almost a year while inventories were lower. Optimism remained for the road ahead, with the future conditions index edging up to 33.9. — Jeff Cox
Stocks jump on Covid-19 vaccine optimism
Stocks jumped at the open on Monday as investors eyed positive results from Covid-19 vaccine trials. The Dow advanced 344 points for a gain of 1.15%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.73%. The Nasdaq Composite opened in the red, however, amid a market rotation out of growth names.
— Pippa Stevens
Here are Monday’s biggest analyst calls of the day: AT&T, Chewy, Chipotle, McAfee & more
- Needham initiated Chewy as buy.
- Wells Fargo resumed coverage of T-Mobile as overweight.
- Wells Fargo resumed coverage of AT&T as underweight.
- Evercore ISI initiated Take-Two and Activision Blizzard as outperform.
- Jefferies downgraded Tilray to underperform from hold.
- Morgan Stanley initiated McAfee as overweight.
- Piper Sandler raised its price target on Chipotle to $1,745 from $1,514.
- JPMorgan upgraded Tapestry to overweight from neutral.
Pro subscribers can read more here.
— Michael Bloom
Here are Goldman's vaccine approval stock plays
Goldman Sachs is advising its clients to own tactical positions in value stocks amid the promising vaccine news. The bank screened the S&P 500 for companies whose earnings estimates still significantly lag their pre-pandemic levels. The bank believes these names could see a drastic rebound in profit expectations and have the potential to lead the market gains.
"We expect vaccine approval and distribution will serve as a catalyst for the trade and will drive positive EPS revisions in many of the hardest-hit industries and most virus exposed companies," David Kostin, Goldman's chief U.S. equity strategy, said in a note.
CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.
— Yun Li
Market rotation underway
Investors favored value names last week amid a market rotation that looked set to continue at the opening bell on Monday.
Last week the Dow and S&P 500 gained 4.08% and 2.16% respectively, while the Russell 2,000 advanced 6.08%. The Nasdaq Composite, however, slid 0.55% for its third negative week in four as investors shed growth names that have been market leaders this year. Rising hopes for a Covid-19 vaccine has stoked investor optimism that some of the hardest hit areas of the market could be poised for a recovery.
On Monday futures contracts tied to the S&P 500 and Dow advanced, while Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.3%.
— Pippa Stevens
Clayton to leave top SEC post at the end of the year
Jay Clayton, who has headed the Securities and Exchange Commission since 2017, said Monday he will step down at the end of the year, before his term expires. Clayton said he leaves the regulatory agency with U.S. markets system "the strongest and most nimble in the world." SEC chairs typically leave when a new president takes over. President-elect Joe Biden could name former Manhattan U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara or several others in contention to the position. – Jeff Cox
Bank of America leads banks higher amid rising rates, vaccine hopes
Shares of the nation's largest banks rose across the board Monday morning on the heels of yet another promising vaccine announcement and rising interest rates.
Bank of America led the group higher with a premarket climb of 3.6% while Citi and JPMorgan Chase each rose about 3.4%. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley added 2.2% and 2.4%, respectively, in extended trading before the opening bell in New York.
Traders accredited the strength in bank stocks to Moderna's upbeat vaccine announcement and broader hopes that the U.S. economy may soon have a viable vaccine approved for distribution and widespread use.
Hopes that a vaccine could ultimately restore the U.S. economy to pre-pandemic levels also fueled a rise in interest rates. Rising rates tend to benefit banks, which turn a profit by lending money at a higher rate than what they pay to savers.
Wall Street reacts to Moderna vaccine trial results
Following Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine trial update, Jefferies said the company is delivering "above expectations."
"This de-risks the platform and should increase visibility on a [potential] 'best in class' vaccine," analyst Michael Yee said. "PFE and now MRNA both have very high end efficacy and it will be interesting to see if other platforms show this high of efficacy. We also note the final efficacy levels at the final analyses over the next month for PFE and MRNA may move around a little bit - but probably not significantly," he added.
On Monday Modern said that preliminary phase three trial data showed its coronavirus vaccine is more than 94% effective in preventing Covid-19. The analysis evaluated 95 confirmed Covid-19 infections among the trial's 30,000 participants.
"Moderna's data is incrementally positive given the reduction in severe infections and the favourable trends for strong efficacy across ethnic and elderly subgroups," noted Citi.
Shares of Moderna jumped more than 14% during premarket trading.
— Pippa Stevens, Berkeley Lovelace Jr.
Tech stocks under pressure
Major tech stocks lost a little ground in premarket trading as the rotation to cyclical and reopening stocks looked set to continue on Monday. Shares of Facebook were down roughly 1%, while Amazon and Apple slipped less than 1%. Netflix shares shed 1.9%.
— Jesse Pound
Moderna soars on positive vaccine trial
Shares of Moderna popped more than 15% in premarket trading on Monday after the drugmaker announced preliminary phase three trial data showing its coronavirus vaccine is more than 94% effective in preventing Covid-19.
The trial evaluated 95 confirmed Covid-19 infections among the 30,000 participants. Moderna said 90 cases of Covid-19 were observed in the placebo group versus 5 cases observed in the group that received its two-dose vaccine. That resulted in an estimated vaccine efficacy of 94.5%, it said.
Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel called the vaccine a "game-changer."
The positive news from Moderna follows Pfizer and BioNTech's announcement last week that its coronavirus vaccine was more than 90% effective in a late-stage trial. U.S. equities futures rose on Monday following the news.
— Maggie Fitzgerald
Travel stocks surging in premarket trading
Shares of airlines and cruise stocks moved sharply higher in premarket trading on Monday after Moderna announced preliminary results from its phase-three vaccine trial, spurring hopes that the travel industry could strengthen its recovery in 2021. Shares of United Airlines popped more than 7%, while those of Delta and American rose more than 4%. Among cruise stocks, Norwegian jumped 8.7%, while Carnival and Royal Caribbean gained more than 6%.
— Jesse Pound
Stock futures jump following Moderna Covid-19 vaccine update
U.S. stock futures jumped on Monday after Moderna released optimistic preliminary trial data for its Covid-19 vaccine, boosting sentiment in the market for a continued economic recovery.
Futures contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced nearly 500 points for a gain of 1.7%. S&P 500 futures rose 1.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.2%.
Stocks are coming off a strong week after Pfizer and BioNTech announced that their coronavirus vaccine candidate was also more than 90% effective. Both the S&P and Russell 2,000 closed at record highs on Friday, while posting a gain for the week. The Dow also finished last week higher. The Nasdaq Composite, however, registered its third negative week in four amid a rotation out of some of the high-flying tech names.
The Dow is about 72 points away from a record close.
— Pippa Stevens