Amazon will be big holiday season winner getting 42 cents of every $1 spent, Truist says

Published Fri, Nov 27 20209:46 AM ESTUpdated Fri, Nov 27 202010:34 AM EST

(This story is for CNBC Pro subscribers only.) E-commerce giant Amazon is poised to be the biggest winner this holiday season as the pandemic forces many Americans to shop online, according to Wall Street firm Truist Securities. The firm also gave clients other big winners into year-end. Truist estimated that Amazon will claim 42 cents of every dollar spent during the full year-end shopping season as Black Friday kicks off a "robust" holiday shopping period amid rising Covid-19 cases. "Amazon will come out the victor this holiday season," Youssef Squali, equity analyst at Truist, said in a note Friday. "We're incrementally positive on AMZN going into what should be a blockbuster holiday season, given the company's outsized growth within US e-com, of which we estimate AMZN will claim ~42% of total GMV vs. ~36% last year." This unprecedented year is expected to drive massive growth in online sales. Adobe is calling for a 33% year-over-year increase in U.S. online sales from Nov.1 to Dec. 31, totaling $189 billion, Truist noted, adding the acceleration implies further market share gains for Amazon. Amazon continues to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the pandemic, as consumers flock to the site for essential goods, groceries and household items. The company reported a 37% revenue growth in the third quarter with earnings well above analyst expectations. Shares of Amazon has soared more than 70% this year. "This is fueled by the pandemic, which is accelerating the online migration and driving a record number of new shoppers online; and enabled by AMZN's broader selection, faster shipping, and near-record store closings YTD," Squali said. Other winners The analyst also listed other potential winners this holiday season, including Google-parent Alphabet, Facebook , The Trade Desk and Peloton. Google and Facebook should benefit from the online shopping boom as the "arm dealers to virtually all domestic e-commerce platforms," Truist said. The Trade Desk, which sells technology that helps brands reach targeted audiences across media formats, saw its shares soar more than 50% this month alone after reporting third-quarter earnings that showed a rebound of advertising spend on its platform and growth in its connected TV business. The Trade Desk "remains one of the best plays on programmatic advertising, another customer acquisition channel for ecommerce companies," Squali said. Peloton recently experienced some weakness as investors rotated out of their pandemic stay-at-home winners amid positive vaccine news. The stock is down nearly 12% in the past month, but it's still up 276% in 2020. Truist said Peloton has some of "the most sought after" fitness equipment this holiday season and should be a "primary beneficiary of the ongoing health craze."

An Amazon worker delivers packages amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Denver, Colorado.

Kevin Mohatt | Reuters

(This story is for CNBC Pro subscribers only.)

E-commerce giant Amazon is poised to be the biggest winner this holiday season as the pandemic forces many Americans to shop online, according to Wall Street firm Truist Securities. The firm also gave clients other big winners into year-end.

Truist estimated that Amazon will claim 42 cents of every dollar spent during the full year-end shopping season as Black Friday kicks off a "robust" holiday shopping period amid rising Covid-19 cases.