This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. Just a little market reflux so far, centered on the spicy stuff that had been most popular during the recent risk binge. (Stocks were already rallying back to flatline midday). The fast-money speculative faves - TSLA , bitcoin , solar plays – getting clipped but leaving the broader market largely unharmed. There are no more substantive reasons for pullbacks in things like TSLA and crypto then there are genuine fundamental reasons for their big daily gains recently. But broadly speaking overbought conditions plus a bounce in the dollar has taken the air out of some of the more inflated momentum areas. Still early. The opening tumble – which stopped just short of a 1% S & P 500 dip – was bought pretty handily. Perhaps because traders – human and robotic alike – are aware that for the past four weeks the weekly low occurred intraday on Monday? "Works until it doesn't" is probably the operative thought for short-term traders. This isn't a prediction it'll surely happen again but can provide a small test. If the S & P slips below this morning's low – or, better yet, Friday's low – maybe it means in the short term the bulls are slightly less in control and the market is in cool-off/consolidation mode. There is some talk out there that some of the mechanical virtuous-cycle feedback-loop factors that have helped support the market from options-trading and dealer-hedging relative to index levels and expiration cycles have receded for a week or two here. I don't view this as the main driver of the action but many do see it as a swing factor when all else is equal. For what it's worth, trading-desk posture has targeted this week and next and 3800+ areas on the S & P as an area where there's at least an opportunity for sellers to make a dent. The march higher in Treasury yields shows no quit. Reflation expectations are rolling, right or wrong, and money being chased out of longer-term bonds. Probably nearing a point where a paus makes sense but we'll see: Economically sensitive stuff holding up fine here – banks firm, small-caps outperforming, semis bulletproof, consumer cyclicals (cars, homes and stores) all up Monday. Pretty immune to discouraging virus/vaccine news flow, for the moment. Market is trying to sequester the wild speculative stuff from the rest of the tape. Sometimes works, not always. Breadth is fine, volume is an almost even up/down mix though more individual stocks are lower. VIX is perky. Definitely still a bid to lock in gains, some wariness around the jumpiness in the cult stocks plus the hum of threats around inauguration unrest. Wall of worry not demolished yet.
Traders work on the floor of the NYSE.
This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics.