Market returns are much worse when inflation is high, Goldman says. Here's how to play it

Published Mon, Jun 7 202111:25 AM EDTUpdated Mon, Jun 7 202111:54 AM EDT

Inflation could be coming, and if history is any gauge, that might mean lackluster market returns, according to Goldman Sachs. "The stock market tends to perform better during periods of low inflation than when inflation is high," Goldman's chief U.S. equity strategist, David Kostin, told clients on Monday. Investors have been monitoring signs of inflation in recent months, raising concerns about a potential rollback of the Federal Reserve's easy policies. A key inflation indicator, the core personal consumption expenditures index, rose 3.1% in April from a year earlier, faster than the forecast 2.9% increase. Central bank chief Jerome Powell said the rising costs should be transitory, but market participants are looking for any clues about how to play even the temporary change in prices. Goldman looked at periods of higher inflation since 1962 and found the median monthly market return has been 2% annualized in phases when inflation was high and rising compared with a 15% gain when inflation was high and falling. Plus, stocks returned an annualized 4% when inflation was low and rising and a whopping 19% when inflation was low and falling, Goldman said. Overall, when inflation was high, stocks returned 9% and when inflation was low, stocks gained 15%, according to Goldman. The Wall Street firm categorized the periods of inflation by comparing year-over-year core Consumer Price Indexes with the Federal Reserve's estimate of consensus long-term inflation expectations. How to play it Given the historic inflation data, Goldman also told clients the best way to play the periods of rising costs. "Within the market, periods of high inflation have corresponded with the outperformance of the Health Care, Energy, Real Estate, and Consumer Staples sectors," said Kostin. Materials and technology stocks have fared the worst during inflationary regimes, the firm said. Goldman also told clients a good way to trade higher inflation is to own stocks with high and stable gross margins. Gross margin is the sales revenue a company is left over with after the costs associated with producing the goods are subtracted. In other words, these companies have pricing power. Take a look at Goldman's list of stocks with high and stable gross margins. Names such as Adobe, Aspen Technology, Activision Blizzard, Etsy and Williams Companies made it on Goldman's list. Zoetis, Philip Morris International, IHS Markit, Under Armour and PPG Industries also earned spots on Goldman's list. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.

Adobe Systems signage is displayed outside of the company's office in San Francisco, California, U.S

David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Inflation could be coming, and if history is any gauge, that might mean lackluster market returns, according to Goldman Sachs.

"The stock market tends to perform better during periods of low inflation than when inflation is high," Goldman's chief U.S. equity strategist, David Kostin, told clients on Monday.