Peloton will report its fiscal fourth-quarter results Thursday after the market closes, showing investors how it's managing as consumers consider a return to the gym . One year earlier, Peloton crushed analysts' earnings estimates and offered an eye-popping business outlook. Its high-tech cycle and treadmill quickly became two of the hottest commodities for people looking to break a sweat amid the Covid-19 health crisis. Wall Street rallied behind the momentum, sending Peloton shares up more than 400% in 2020. But the heightened demand also strained Peloton's supply chain. Frustrated customers reported long waits to receive their cycles. In May, Peloton announced a $400 million investment to construct its first factory in the United States to speed up production and delivery. That's expected to be up and running by 2023. After Peloton experienced rapid growth in 2020, analysts want to see if the business can keep the momentum going. The company's plans include expanding into new regions outside of the U.S. and launching additional fitness products. Peloton must also invest to hold onto its existing subscriber base, or risk losing them to the local gym or other equipment makers, such as Tonal and Hydrow. Peloton shares gained more than 1% on Thursday ahead of the report, but they're down more than 22% for 2021. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv expect Peloton will report an adjusted loss per share of 44 cents on revenue of $921.7 million for its fiscal fourth quarter. As the fitness tech company reveals its latest results, investors should pay attention to these three key areas. 1. Fiscal 2022 outlook Peloton is about to report its fiscal fourth-quarter and 2021 results. Analysts and investors expect the company to issue some sort of guidance for its fiscal first quarter and 2022. A group of analysts at Oppenheimer lowered their price target on Peloton shares to $140 from $150 ahead of Thursday's results, in part because the firm expects guidance to come in on the low end of Wall Street expectations. Oppenheimer expects Peloton's outlook for fiscal 2022 to be conservative, given recent user trends that appear to be disappointing, along with other uncertainties related to upcoming product launches. Peloton Chief Executive Officer John Foley has spoken publicly about investing in new machines and rumors have swirled that one will be a rower . But it's still unclear when that will happen and what the products will be. Peloton is also reportedly making its own digital heart rate armband . Oppenheimer said outgoing web visits to the payment provider Affirm from Peloton's website were down 38% in the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter, and down 33% in July from the prior month. In past quarters, this particular traffic trend has had an 88% correlation to Peloton equipment deliveries, Oppenheimer noted. A fall-off could mean purchases of Peloton's fitness machines are slowing, or that deliveries are delayed. Peloton's sales in fiscal 2021 are expected to come in at $4 billion, which would represent a 119.4% increase from the prior year, according to Refinitiv. 2. Treadmill update In May, Peloton recalled both its treadmill machines , the Tread and Tread+, over safety concerns. It affected about 125,000 Tread+ machines and roughly 1,050 Tread products in the U.S. The company has been working on a fix for the machines before it can resume marketing and selling them — and before it can officially launch the less-expensive Tread in the U.S. Prior to the recall, the Tread machine had only been available in the U.K. and Canada, and for a small group of people in the U.S. Peloton announced earlier this week that its Tread will be available for sale in the U.S beginning Monday . It will also go back on sale in the U.K. and Canada next week. The machine is set to debut in Germany later this fall. While Peloton's cycle business far outweighs its treadmill sales, the Tread and Tread+ are another avenue for growth. These are products that Peloton can sell to people who already own its cycles. Peloton previously said it expected the treadmill recall to reduce fourth-quarter sales by $165 million . It has taken on added costs by offering customers full refunds and temporarily waiving membership fees for affected users. Peloton still hasn't offered a timeline for when its Tread+ will be available for sale. But this week, analysts and investors are hoping to learn what Peloton's expectations are for its treadmill sales once they have resumed. 3. Engagement metrics Outside of revenue and earnings growth, analysts and investors are looking at metrics such as churn rate and workouts per subscriber to see how the company is retaining users. Peloton has been adding fresh content, including meditation, Pilates classes and new instructors to give people more options to pick from. In Peloton's latest quarter, average net monthly connected fitness churn — which measures the retention of connected fitness subscribers — hit a six-year low of 0.31%. The lower the churn rate, the less turnover Peloton is seeing with its user base. Peloton also tracked 26 monthly workouts per connected fitness subscriber, up from 17.1 in the year-ago period. With gyms across the country either shut or enforcing Covid safety protocols, Peloton's subscribers have been taking more classes each month and continuing with their memberships. However, these metrics likely won't hold this strong forever, BMO Capital Markets analyst Simeon Siegel said. "The engagement metrics are key to this story," Siegel said in an interview. "I don't know that this is going to be the quarter where all the sudden, everyone starts offloading their churn. But these will be important metrics. And when they go south, that will be a very big deal." Analysts note that seasonality can also impact Peloton's key metrics. During the summer months, for example, people tend to spend more time outdoors and thus complete fewer workouts on a treadmill or bike inside. Telsey Advisory Group's Dana Telsey noted that in Peloton's June quarter in 2018 and 2019, the average number of workouts per user fell 12% on average. But they rose 40% in 2020, Telsey said, with people stuck at home during the pandemic. A resurgence in Covid-19 cases due to the delta variant could be another factor that the company mentions during its post-earnings conference call this week. It could keep more people at home and out of the gym. —CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this reporting.
Cari Gundee rides her Peloton exercise bike at her home on April 06, 2020 in San Anselmo, California.
Ezra Shaw | Getty Images