Earnings playbook: A complete guide to this week's reports, including the first of tech

Published Sun, Jan 23 20227:50 AM EST

The first tech companies of the season report earnings this week, marking the beginning of a busy couple weeks ahead. Microsoft, Tesla and Apple will release quarterly results, alongside a handful of other tech firms. McDonald's and Boeing will also offer updates amid a cocktail of economic headwinds. Staff shortages, rising costs and Covid resurgences continue to dog companies headed into the new year. CNBC runs through which companies to watch this week, and which updates will be in the spotlight: Monday IBM is set to report earnings just after market close, with an investor call scheduled for 5 p.m. ET Last quarter: IBM reported weaker-than-expected quarterly revenue . This quarter: Wall Street is forecasting about 60% EPS upside year over year, despite shrinking revenue. What CNBC technology reporter Jordan Novet is watching: "Investors will be seeking perspective on how IBM will perform on its own after spinning out Kyndryl in November . They also want to know if and for how long the legacy software, hardware and consulting company can achieve CEO Arvind Krishna's goal of mid-single-digit growth. Any hints on management's earnings expectations for the full year will be welcome." What history shows: IBM shares have a pretty rough track record around earnings reports, according to Bespoke Investment Group, falling more than 9% in next-day trading 2 of the last 4 quarters. Tuesday Microsoft will report its results a few minutes after market close and host a call with executives at 5:30 p.m. ET Last quarter: MSFT beat revenue expectations and reported 22% growth. This quarter: The Street is looking for roughly 13% earnings growth over last year. What CNBC technology reporter Jordan Novet is watching: "With Microsoft poised to spend almost $69 billion on video-game publisher Activision Blizzard , investors are hungry for more detail on that deal, as well as the still-pending $19.7 billion Nuance Communications acquisition . They'll be listening for clues on the financial impact of price hikes for commercial Office productivity software subscriptions, set to take effect on Mar. 1. And revenue growth for Microsoft's Azure public cloud will, as always, be a key statistic." What history shows: Microsoft stock comes out ahead the day after an earnings report almost 60% of the time, according to Bespoke, but it's hit something of a recent rough patch. Wednesday Boeing is due to release quarterly results at 7:30 a.m. ET, followed by an analyst call at 10:30 a.m. Last quarter: BA posted a quarterly loss as Dreamliner flaws drove up costs, offsetting rising airplane sales. This quarter: Analysts are expecting another quarter of per-share losses before a profitable Q1. What CNBC airlines reporter Leslie Josephs is watching: "With sales and deliveries of the 737 Max picking up over the past year, the question now is: When will deliveries of Boeing's 787 Dreamliners resume? Boeing is still waiting for the FAA to sign off before it can resume deliveries. Airlines haven't been able to get those planes for most of the past year, and that's already forcing at least American Airlines to trim its 2022 international schedule, raising questions about what Boeing will have to pay customers for the delays. Working off that 100-plus Dreamliner inventory will be key this year as Boeing tries to regain its footing after three difficult years. Investors will be looking for clues on demand, especially for wide-body planes, and on the forecast for air freighters and potential supply chain issues." What history shows: Boeing shares have lost ground following a quarterly report 5 of the last 6 quarters, according to Bespoke. Intel is set to report earnings shortly after the end of trading, followed by an investor call at 5 p.m. ET Last quarter: INTC blamed an industry-wide component shortage for its PC chip business shrinking 2% This quarter: Analysts estimate earnings will be 40% lower than the same period last year What CNBC technology reporter Kif Leswing is watching: "Current CEO Pat Gelsinger took over the company nearly a year ago, in Feb. 2021. Intel remains a company in transition: It's investing billions in new chip factories where it will manufacture chips not only for its own use, but also for competitors like Qualcomm. It's also facing new competition from AMD and ARM-based chips in its key enterprise chip segment. Analysts will be be looking for color on how much Intel's turnaround will cost and for more details about a newly announced $20 billion Ohio plant. " What history shows: Intel stock has sold off after an earnings report 7 of the last 8 quarters, including three dips of more than 10%, according to Bespoke. Tesla should release its results sometime after market close and host a call with executives at 5:30 p.m. ET Last quarter: TSLA reported record revenue and profits for the third quarter. This quarter: Wall Street projections see Tesla earnings nearly tripling on a year-over-year basis. What CNBC Tesla reporter Lora Kolodny is watching: "Tesla CEO and 'technoking' Elon Musk has promised to give some product updates on the 2021 Q4 earnings call. Fans will want details on Tesla's progress developing driverless technology and will seek guidance on start-of-production and customer deliveries for the long-delayed Cybertruck, Roadster refresh and Semi (a fully electric, heavy duty truck). Executives are also expected to give updates on the new factories that Tesla is building in Austin, Texas and outside of Berlin, along with details about how Tesla plans to combat parts shortages and other supply chain issues. The company's crypto holdings may be a point of focus after Bitcoin prices sank below $40,000 late last week. " What history shows: There's no real consistency in Tesla's recent trading around earnings. The stock typically fares well but has fallen 4 of the last 6 quarters, according to Bespoke. Thursday McDonald's will report earnings just before 7 a.m. ET and host an analyst call at 8:30 a.m. Last quarter: MCD put up an earnings beat, fueled by higher U.S. menu prices, and raised its sales forecast. This quarter: The Street is looking for roughly 35% year-over-year EPS growth. What CNBC restaurants reporter Amelia Lucas is watching: "For McDonald's, it's not a question of whether staffing shortages and inflation are hitting the business, it's a question of how badly. The chain's U.S. performance has been crushing that of its rivals lately, but the stock has fallen 5% this month. And outside the U.S., some of the fast-food giant's top markets have imposed vaccination mandates for restaurants, which could put pressure on international sales." What history shows: McDonald's stock has a tough time around quarterly reports, gaining ground just 40% of the time, according to Bespoke. Comcast is slated to report earnings at 7 a.m. ET, with an analyst call at 8:30 a.m. Last quarter: CMCSA beat expectations for revenue, earnings and internet customers. This quarter: Wall Street is forecasting a roughly 30% earnings upside year over year. What CNBC media reporter Alex Sherman is watching: "The big story for Comcast, and the cable industry in general, is broadband penetration into U.S. homes may be close to its saturation point. Analysts have lowered new broadband subscriber estimates for 2022 as cable companies lowered their own forecasts for the end of 2021. The looming threat of 5G as a competitive home broadband substitution has pushed Comcast shares lower throughout the past year. So Comcast will need to give investors a new growth narrative if it can't rely on broadband additions. Some of that can come from NBCUniversal, Sky and theme parks, which all have a chance to emerge as better businesses in a post-pandemic world. Comcast can also fight back with strong mobile service numbers and more innovative bundling of wireless and cable service for its customers." What history shows: Comcast stock trades higher 60% of the time after an earnings report, making it a pretty consistent next-day winner, according to Bespoke. But shares typically put up minimal gains. Robinhood should release its quarterly results around market close and will host an investor call at 5 p.m. ET Last quarter: HOOD saw its revenue fall way short of expectations on lighter crypto trading. This quarter: Analyst coverage of Robinhood earnings is still pretty thin, but they unanimously expect another quarterly loss per share. What CNBC markets reporter Maggie Fitzgerald is watching: "All eyes will be on the strength of the Robinhood's cryptocurrency business after a disappointing third quarter . Investors will also be monitoring how growth in Robinhood's equity trading and equity option trading stacks up with peers. Shares of Robinhood are more than 84% off their most recent high last summer. Finally, investors will be looking for updates on new initiatives like crypto wallets and fully funded securities lending." What history shows: Robinhood shares have shed more than 10% after each of the company's two quarterly reports as a public company, according to Bespoke. Apple is set to report earnings at 4:30 p.m. ET, followed by a call with executives at 5 p.m. Last quarter: AAPL missed sales expectations as CEO Tim Cook said supply issues cost the company $6 billion. This quarter: The Street is estimating roughly 12% annual EPS growth and modest revenue growth. What CNBC technology reporter Kif Leswing is watching: "Apple hasn't provided official guidance but officials said in October that it expected to report more revenue than last holiday quarter's $114 billion in sales. That would be Apple's biggest quarter by revenue ever. But analysts will be closely watching to see the impact of a parts shortage on production of iPhones, iPads, and Macs. Apple management previously said that it would lose more than $6 billion in sales from supply-related challenges during the quarter ending in December, and any detail or color from Apple CEO Tim Cook would be informative about the state of the global electronics supply chain." What history shows: Apple stock is on a 5-quarter losing streak when it comes to next-day trading, according to Bespoke. Friday Chevron will release earnings sometime before the market open and will host an investor call at 11 a.m. ET Last quarter: CVX reported its highest free cash flow on record as a rebound in oil boosted results. This quarter: Wall Street expects a massive earnings rebound from the same period last year, when Chevron posted a quarterly loss per share. What CNBC energy reporter Pippa Stevens is watching: "Energy companies have been reaping the rewards of higher oil and gas prices, even as prices dipped in December amid fears of the omicron variant's impact. Expectations ahead of earnings are high for the group, which is the top-performing S & P sector both year to date and over the last 12 months. The Street continues to reward capital discipline in the space, and so investors will be focused on commentary around whether Chevron plans to accelerate its buyback plan this year. Also in focus will be how the company's upstream division performed amid the higher commodity price environment, and whether or not Chevron plans to boost production." What history shows: The fourth quarter is Chevron stock's weakest for next-day trading, losing an average of 1.4% after issuing results, according to Bespoke. Disclosure: Comcast is the owner of NBCUniversal, parent company of CNBC.

A trader works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, August 9, 2021.

Andrew Kelly | Reuters

The first tech companies of the season report earnings this week, marking the beginning of a busy couple weeks ahead.

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